Game Analysis

UTSA (-8.5)  41   North Texas  31

Both of these teams are good offensively and bad on defense. North Texas has averaged 34.5 points per game and rates at 0.3 yards per play better than average after adjusting for opposing defenses faced and adjusting for the absence of RB Ayo Adeyi, who has averaged 8.0 yards on his 86 runs this season. UTSA’s defense doesn’t look so bad based on raw numbers, as they’ve allowed 26.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, but the Roadrunners have also faced multiple bad backup quarterbacks (one one good one) and that defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average after adjusting for opposing quarterbacks faced. The Mean Green are projected to gain 436 yards at 6.3 yppl inside the dome.

UTSA has been 0.6 yppl better than average offensively this season and North Texas is bad against the run and the pass and their defense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Roadrunners are projected at 544 total yards at 7.0 yppl and should win this game comfortably. Keep in mind that conference championship games tend to favor the big underdog and teams with a season win percentage that is .170 or more worse than their favored opponent are 22-6 ATS in these conference title games.