Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – Memphis Team Total OVER (40.5)

MEMPHIS (-12.5)  51   North Texas  27

I played against North Texas for a Best Bet win last week, as the Eagles were torched by UNLV 27-58 while given up 576 total yards. The only other better than average offense that North Texas faced was SMU, who racked up 48 points on 577 yards at 8.7 yards per play. They also gave up 459 yards at 6.1 yppl to Texas Southern, a team that is about 40 points worse than an average FBS team and that would average only 4.1 yppl against an average FBS defense.

Now the Eagles face the best offense that they’ve faced, as Memphis has averaged 7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack. The Tigers started the season by scoring 23 points on 5.6 yppl against a very good Mississippi State defense and then totaled 81 points on 1054 yards at 7.6 yppl the last two weeks against Navy and Arkansas State, who both aren’t bad defensively.

Using this season’s games only would favor Memphis by 27 points and my updated ratings favor the Tigers by 23.6 points. My only concern is the backdoor potential for a good North Texas pass attack (8.4 yards per pass play and rated at 0.8 yppp better than average) going up against a Memphis defense that has struggled to defend the pass so far this season (70% completions and 8.1 yards per pass play allowed) and that I rate at 1.2 yppp worse than average. Memphis has a good run defense and North Texas runs the ball 59% of the time. However, if the Eagles get behind, which I believe they will then they’re likely going to throw the ball more than they usually do, which could lead to some late points.

All the value on this play is with the very good Memphis offense against the horrible defense of North Texas, which is why I prefer to play the Memphis Team Total Over 42 points or less for a 2-Star Best Bet.

The alternate play, if your book doesn’t have Team Totals, is 1-Star on Memphis (-12.5) at -14 or less.