Game Analysis

Lean – North Texas (-26)  46   CHARLOTTE  15

North Texas has averaged 44 points in 6 games against FBS (and 51 against FCS team Lamar) and the Eagles have done that against a slate of defenses that rate at bit better collectively than an average FBS defense. Charlotte has a defense that’s 0.9 yppl worse than an average defense and they gave up 54 points to the only better than average offensive team that they faced (South Florida).

Charlotte also has #136 ranked offense (out of #136 FBS teams) and the 49ers have averaged only 13 points in 6 games against FBS opponents that collectively have the same defensive rating as North Texas.

My math model favors North Texas by 30 points and Charlotte applies to a 12-64-1 ATS situation that applies to big home underdogs with bad offenses.