Game Analysis

CALIFORNIA (-14)  33  North Texas  15

Cal’s defense is once again among the best units in the nation (rated 9^th in compensated yards per play allowed last season and near the top in interceptions) and the Bears flexed their defensive muscle in last week’s 20-19 upset win at Washington. The Bears held the Huskies to just 4.3 yards per play and should perform well against a North Texas offense that managed just 5.0 yppl last week in their 27-49 loss at SMU. North Texas was not as good offensively last season as their raw numbers suggest, as their 6.3 yards per play came against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl. Using last year’s stats would have projected 15.3 points for UNT in this game and 15 points is also what my current ratings forecast for the Mean Green in this game.

The difference for the Bears this season is an improved offense, as quarterback Chase Garbers has improved a bit and the rushing attack is much stronger with Chris Brown and Marcel Dancy combining for 6.0 yards per rush in the first two games. The Bears ran for 210 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play against a very good Washington defense last week and North Texas has a horrible run defense that’s allowed over 200 ground yards per game at 5.8 yprp, including giving up 212 rushing yards 6.2 yprp to FCS team Abilene Christian. Cal’s run-first approach should work well in this game and I like the Bears here and I’m not worried at all about a letdown. In fact, home favorites of 7 points or more are 152-105-3 ATS after winning straight up as a road underdog of 7 points or more the previous week.