Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – North Carolina Team Total Under (16.5 -115)

WAKE FOREST (-5.5)  20   North Carolina  10

Wake Forest has an elite defense that ranks as 9th best in the nation in compensated yards per play allowed at 4.7 yppl allowed (with starters in the game) against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Demon Deacons have allowed 14 points or fewer in 5 of their 9 games and North Carolina is worse offensively than every team that Wake has faced this season – including FCS team Western Carolina, who has an offense that is just 0.2 yppl worse than an average FBS offense.

UNC has really improved defensively since their opening game but their offense has averaged only 19.4 points on 285 total yards at 4.9 yppl this season while facing a schedule of teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average FBS attack. UNC has faced just 4 better than average defensive teams this season (TCU, UCF, Clemson, and Virginia) and has scored 16 points or fewer in all 4 of those games (12.3 average ppg). None of those defensive units are close to as good as the Wake Forest defense that the Tarheels will face today.

The Wake Forest Team Total Under 16.5 at -125 odds or better. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals (or your TT odds are more than -125), is the game Under 38 or more.