Game Analysis
Lean – North Carolina (-6) 32 Temple 23
Friday, December 27 – 9 am Pacific
North Carolina needed to win their final two games to get to this bowl and the Tarheels are reportedly preparing for Temple with enthusiasm, as is generally the case for teams that had to win their finale to qualify for a bowl (such teams are 38-18 ATS if not facing another 6-6 team off a win). UNC was certainly better than their record suggests, as all 6 of their losses were by 7 points or less, including a 1-point loss to unbeaten #3 Clemson.
North Carolina moved the ball very well on offense, as they averaged 6.3 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average attack. The Tarheels are led by quarterback Sam Howell, who averaged 7.3 yppp against a schedule of mostly good defensive teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Temple has a good defense, as the Owls are 0.9 yppl better than average on that side of the ball (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) but UNC tends to control the ball and the math projects 454 total yards at 5.7 yards per play. I believe that North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell can outperform the projections against Temple in this game. Temple’s pass defense stats were very good overall (1.2 yards per pass play better than average) but the Owls gave up 8.1 yppp to the 3 really good passing teams that they faced this season (Memphis, SMU, and UCF). Those 3 teams would combine to average 8.3 yppp against an average defense, so Temple was just 0.2 yppp better than average against really good quarterbacks and Howell qualifies, as his compensated yppp rating is just 0.2 yppp worse than that of Memphis, SMU, and UCF quarterbacks.
Temple’s offense isn’t nearly as good as it was last season, as quarterback Anthony Russo doesn’t have the big play receivers he had in 2018. The Owls averaged only 22.4 points and 5.0 yards per play in their first 10 FBS games before exploiting defensively horrible Connecticut in their regular season finale and I rate that attack at 0.6 yppl worse than average. North Carolina is 0.2 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense, but that unit is better than the Temple offense and I project just 351 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Owls in this game.
Overall the math favors North Carolina by 8.5 points (with 54.9 total points) and I think there is upside in North Carolina’s offense given Temple’s struggles with good quarterbacks this season. For what it’s worth, Temple head coach Rod Carey is 0-6 straight up and 0-6 ATS in bowl games (UNC coach Mack Brown is 13-8 ATS). I’ll lean with North Carolina.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.2
37.7
-
Run Yards
186.0
196.7
-
YPRP
5.5
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.0
19.3
-
Pass Att
36.6
32.8
-
Comp %
60.2%
58.9%
-
Pass Yards
286.2
248.9
-
Sacks
2.0
2.6
-
Sack Yards
12.0
15.8
-
Sack %
5.1%
7.5%
-
Pass Plays
38.5
35.4
-
Net Pass Yards
274.2
233.1
-
YPPP
7.1
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
74.7
73.1
-
Total Yards
472.3
445.6
-
YPPL
6.3
6.1
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.9
-
Int %
2.3%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.9
42.1
-
Run Yards
163.6
184.5
-
YPRP
4.8
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.1
17.5
-
Pass Att
35.8
32.9
-
Comp %
58.9%
53.1%
-
Pass Yards
261.7
194.9
-
Sacks
1.7
2.6
-
Sack Yards
10.0
17.0
-
Sack %
4.4%
7.3%
-
Pass Plays
37.4
35.5
-
Net Pass Yards
251.6
177.9
-
YPPP
6.7
5.0
Total
-
Total Plays
73.3
77.6
-
Total Yards
425.3
379.4
-
YPPL
5.8
4.9
TO
-
Int
1.2
1.0
-
Int %
3.3%
3.1%
-
Fumbles
0.6
1.1
-
Turnovers
1.8
2.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/13/18 Virginia Tech |
19-22 |
+6.5
W
|
34/37 |
225/176 |
6.6/4.8 |
2/0 |
21/20 |
34/36 |
305/199 |
0/2 |
3/4 |
8.2/5.0 |
530/375 |
7.5/4.9 |
10/20/18 @ Syracuse |
37-40 |
+10.5
W
|
40/29 |
185/159 |
4.6/5.5 |
1/1 |
34/28 |
54/51 |
313/384 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
5.7/7.0 |
498/543 |
5.2/6.5 |
10/27/18 @ Virginia |
21-31 |
+9.0
L
|
21/40 |
71/231 |
3.4/5.8 |
1/0 |
22/18 |
38/27 |
265/198 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
6.8/6.6 |
336/429 |
5.6/6.1 |
11/03/18 Georgia Tech |
28-38 |
+6.0
L
|
36/74 |
166/464 |
4.6/6.3 |
0/3 |
18/2 |
31/2 |
208/104 |
3/0 |
0/0 |
6.7/52.0 |
374/568 |
5.6/7.5 |
11/10/18 @ Duke |
35-42 |
+10.0
W
|
37/32 |
315/289 |
8.5/9.0 |
0/2 |
27/31 |
42/54 |
221/343 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
5.3/6.0 |
536/632 |
6.8/7.1 |
11/17/18 Western Carolina |
49-26 |
0.0
W
|
50/30 |
296/174 |
5.9/5.8 |
1/2 |
20/19 |
28/35 |
342/269 |
2/0 |
0/4 |
12.2/6.9 |
638/443 |
8.2/6.4 |
11/24/18 No Carolina St. |
28-34 |
+7.0
W
|
34/46 |
160/216 |
4.7/4.7 |
0/0 |
19/16 |
40/29 |
269/191 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
6.6/6.2 |
429/407 |
5.7/5.3 |
08/31/19 South Carolina |
24-20 |
+11.0
W
|
46/27 |
267/148 |
5.8/5.5 |
1/0 |
15/16 |
24/30 |
221/123 |
0/2 |
3/3 |
8.2/3.7 |
488/271 |
6.7/4.5 |
09/07/19 Miami Fla |
28-25 |
+5.0
W
|
31/33 |
131/201 |
4.2/6.1 |
0/0 |
17/30 |
25/39 |
268/289 |
0/0 |
4/4 |
9.2/6.7 |
399/490 |
6.7/6.4 |
09/13/19 @ Wake Forest |
18-24 |
+3.0
L
|
31/46 |
170/229 |
5.5/5.0 |
1/0 |
18/14 |
30/26 |
163/208 |
0/1 |
6/1 |
4.5/7.7 |
333/437 |
5.0/6.0 |
09/21/19 Appalachian State |
31-34 |
-2.5
L
|
37/33 |
171/174 |
4.6/5.3 |
1/0 |
27/20 |
41/29 |
302/211 |
2/1 |
3/2 |
6.9/6.8 |
473/385 |
5.8/6.0 |
09/28/19 Clemson |
20-21 |
+27.0
W
|
33/28 |
166/141 |
5.0/5.0 |
0/1 |
15/18 |
27/30 |
124/197 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
4.1/6.4 |
290/338 |
4.6/5.7 |
10/05/19 @ Georgia Tech |
38-22 |
-10.0
W
|
44/26 |
220/150 |
5.0/5.8 |
0/0 |
33/11 |
51/24 |
369/133 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
7.1/5.1 |
589/283 |
6.1/5.4 |
10/19/19 @ Virginia Tech |
41-43 |
-3.0
L
|
35/55 |
168/282 |
4.8/5.1 |
0/2 |
26/14 |
49/21 |
323/215 |
0/0 |
5/3 |
6.0/9.0 |
491/497 |
5.5/6.3 |
10/26/19 Duke |
20-17 |
-3.5
L
|
42/32 |
236/130 |
5.6/4.1 |
1/1 |
10/22 |
26/41 |
213/199 |
2/2 |
2/5 |
7.6/4.3 |
449/329 |
6.4/4.2 |
11/02/19 Virginia |
31-38 |
-2.0
L
|
36/27 |
204/152 |
5.7/5.6 |
0/0 |
15/31 |
29/40 |
336/366 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
10.8/8.5 |
540/518 |
8.1/7.4 |
11/14/19 @ Pittsburgh |
27-34 |
+4.0
L
|
29/34 |
172/147 |
5.9/4.3 |
0/0 |
27/25 |
43/41 |
293/355 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
6.1/8.5 |
465/502 |
6.0/6.6 |
11/23/19 Mercer |
56-7 |
-38.5
W
|
41/33 |
376/84 |
9.2/2.5 |
0/1 |
11/21 |
15/36 |
161/148 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
10.7/3.9 |
537/232 |
9.6/3.3 |
11/30/19 @ No Carolina St. |
41-10 |
-11.0
W
|
36/25 |
211/139 |
5.9/5.6 |
0/1 |
25/13 |
35/30 |
397/156 |
1/3 |
3/1 |
10.4/5.0 |
608/295 |
8.2/5.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/29/18 @ Boston College |
35-45 |
+12.5
W
|
31/61 |
200/297 |
6.5/4.9 |
1/2 |
21/16 |
47/34 |
248/142 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
5.1/4.1 |
448/439 |
5.6/4.6 |
10/06/18 East Carolina |
49-6 |
-10.5
W
|
46/25 |
196/65 |
4.3/2.6 |
0/0 |
25/18 |
30/39 |
283/97 |
1/0 |
2/3 |
8.8/2.3 |
479/162 |
6.1/2.4 |
10/13/18 @ Navy |
24-17 |
-5.5
W
|
32/53 |
126/274 |
3.9/5.2 |
1/1 |
23/3 |
32/11 |
303/14 |
1/0 |
1/0 |
9.2/1.3 |
429/288 |
6.6/4.5 |
10/20/18 Cincinnati |
24-17 |
-3.0
W
|
30/43 |
80/244 |
2.7/5.7 |
0/2 |
20/14 |
42/33 |
237/88 |
3/1 |
0/3 |
5.6/2.4 |
317/332 |
4.4/4.2 |
11/01/18 @ UCF |
40-52 |
+11.0
L
|
43/42 |
247/300 |
5.7/7.1 |
0/0 |
31/17 |
52/33 |
423/312 |
2/1 |
3/0 |
7.7/9.5 |
670/612 |
6.8/8.2 |
11/10/18 @ Houston |
59-49 |
+4.5
W
|
53/41 |
325/230 |
6.1/5.6 |
1/2 |
15/28 |
23/47 |
217/295 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
8.7/5.9 |
542/525 |
6.9/5.8 |
11/17/18 South Florida |
27-17 |
-14.0
L
|
37/46 |
81/203 |
2.2/4.4 |
1/3 |
20/14 |
35/23 |
257/70 |
1/2 |
2/2 |
6.9/2.8 |
338/273 |
4.6/3.8 |
11/24/18 @ Connecticut |
57-7 |
-30.5
W
|
34/49 |
312/168 |
9.2/3.4 |
0/1 |
12/14 |
15/26 |
223/74 |
1/3 |
0/4 |
14.9/2.5 |
535/242 |
10.9/3.1 |
12/27/18 Duke |
27-56 |
-3.0
L
|
25/36 |
94/136 |
3.8/3.8 |
1/0 |
25/32 |
46/44 |
208/427 |
1/3 |
3/3 |
4.2/9.1 |
302/563 |
4.1/6.8 |
08/31/19 Bucknell |
56-12 |
0.0
W
|
35/23 |
190/39 |
5.4/1.7 |
0/0 |
36/20 |
46/42 |
459/173 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
10.0/3.9 |
649/212 |
8.0/3.2 |
09/14/19 Maryland |
20-17 |
+7.0
W
|
34/41 |
153/191 |
4.5/4.7 |
2/0 |
20/15 |
37/38 |
271/163 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
7.1/3.9 |
424/354 |
5.9/4.3 |
09/21/19 @ Buffalo |
22-38 |
-14.5
L
|
18/54 |
102/220 |
5.7/4.1 |
1/1 |
25/9 |
51/15 |
239/54 |
3/1 |
3/1 |
4.4/3.4 |
341/274 |
4.7/3.9 |
09/28/19 Georgia Tech |
24-2 |
-8.5
W
|
47/32 |
204/135 |
4.3/4.2 |
0/2 |
9/14 |
22/35 |
121/164 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
5.3/4.4 |
325/299 |
4.6/4.3 |
10/03/19 @ East Carolina |
27-17 |
-12.0
L
|
48/30 |
247/123 |
5.1/4.1 |
1/0 |
27/19 |
39/39 |
243/196 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
5.9/4.7 |
490/319 |
5.5/4.4 |
10/12/19 Memphis |
30-28 |
+4.5
W
|
48/30 |
198/146 |
4.1/4.9 |
2/3 |
24/28 |
37/43 |
263/347 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
7.1/7.5 |
461/493 |
5.4/6.5 |
10/19/19 @ SMU |
21-45 |
+9.0
L
|
29/53 |
88/183 |
3.0/3.5 |
1/0 |
21/30 |
36/53 |
188/445 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
4.8/8.1 |
276/628 |
4.1/5.8 |
10/26/19 UCF |
21-63 |
+11.0
L
|
36/45 |
75/398 |
2.1/8.8 |
0/1 |
15/12 |
30/23 |
191/235 |
2/0 |
4/3 |
5.6/9.0 |
266/633 |
3.8/8.9 |
11/07/19 @ South Florida |
17-7 |
-1.0
W
|
35/28 |
174/117 |
5.0/4.2 |
0/2 |
17/23 |
23/38 |
145/162 |
1/0 |
3/9 |
5.6/3.4 |
319/279 |
5.2/3.7 |
11/16/19 Tulane |
29-21 |
+6.0
W
|
24/51 |
113/224 |
4.7/4.4 |
0/2 |
26/12 |
44/30 |
297/110 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
6.8/3.3 |
410/334 |
6.0/4.0 |
11/23/19 @ Cincinnati |
13-15 |
+10.5
W
|
27/38 |
97/181 |
3.6/4.8 |
0/0 |
25/9 |
45/25 |
229/36 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
5.0/1.3 |
326/217 |
4.5/3.3 |
11/30/19 Connecticut |
49-17 |
-27.5
W
|
33/27 |
262/92 |
7.9/3.4 |
0/0 |
18/24 |
29/36 |
312/208 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
10.8/5.2 |
574/300 |
9.3/4.5 |