Game Analysis

Lean – Under (57) – North Carolina (-10)  31   South Carolina  21

South Carolina is once again forced to use graduate assistant coach Zeb Noland at quarterback with Luke Doty injured and Jason Brown transferring. Noland averaged only 5.4 yards on 99 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback, which is 0.7 yppp worse than the Gamecocks’ team rating. The rushing attack also takes a hit with the absence of ZaQuandre White, who opted out after averaging 6.0 yards on 76 runs against FBS teams this season. The other 3 running backs combined for just 3.9 ypr and that difference drops South Carolina’s rushing rating from -0.6 yards per rushing play to -1.1 yprp. South Carolina’s offense was 0.6 yards per play worse than average this season but the Gamecocks rate at 1.1 yppl worse than average heading into this game and I don’t see that difference (worth about 3 points) reflected in the total on this game. North Carolina’s defense is 0.1 yppl worse than average, which is more than good enough to contain South Carolina’s pedestrian attack. I project just 279 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Gamecocks, which includes a slight downward adjustment for the weather (10 mph winds and 33% chance of rain is worth 0.1 yppl).

South Carolina does have a better than average defense, as that unit yielded 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit. The absence of edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare, who opted out to prepare for the NFL combine, is worth 0.2 yppl and 1.2 points and a good North Carolina offense (1.0 yppl better than average) is projected to gain 447 yards at 6.5 yppl.

North Carolina averaged 36.6 points in 11 FBS games but that average was skewed up by 3 games of 58 points or more against below average defensive teams. The Tarheels’ median scoring was 34 points and the math projects 33 points for this game. North Carolina allowed 33.2 points to FBS teams because they couldn’t stop good offenses from scoring. That’s not a problem here, as South Carolina is a bad offensive team and the Tarheels allowed just 12 ppg to the two bad offensive FBS teams that they faced (17 to Georgia State and 7 to Duke) – and 14 points to FCS team Wofford, who has the same offensive rating that South Carolina has entering this game. The math projects 19.6 points for the Gamecocks.

Overall, the math favors UNC by 13.4 points with a total of 52.6 points, but the situation favors the big dog, as is usually the case in minor bowl games. South Carolina applies to a 52-21 ATS bowl game underdog situation that plays on the better defensive team getting points and North Carolina applies to a 6-30 ATS big favorite situation. I’ll pass on the side and lean with the Under.