Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NC STATE (-5.5)  35   North Carolina  22

North Carolina has a very good offense (6.7 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) but the Tarheels are a bit worse than average on a national scale defensively and that offensive advantage that they have over most teams is mitigated by a very good NC State defense. The Wolfpack have yielded just 18.7 points per game and have been 0.9 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and that unit has been better recently since making some changes to their starting lineup. Freshman LB Devon Betty was inserted into the starting lineup 3 games ago and has 4 tackles for loss in those 3 games and he now has 7.5 TFL in the last 6 gamers after barely playing in the first 5 games. Betty replaced Jaylon Scott, who has just 3 TFL the entire season and fewer tackles than Betty despite playing a lot more snaps. NC State has yielded just 4.3 yppl in the last 3 games against Florida State, Wake Forest, and Syracuse, who would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. I only made a slight adjustment for the improvement shown defensively since Better was inserted into the lineup and I think NC State’s defense is probably better than how I currently rate that unit. The UNC offense against the NC State defense is close to a wash and I project the Tarheels with 352 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game.

NC State’s advantage is when they have the ball, as the Wolfpack offense (33 ppg and 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) is better than a North Carolina defense that’s allowing 33 points per game and 6.1 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The math model projects 434 yards at 6.5 yppl for NC State in this game and the Wolfpack have an edge in special teams.

North Carolina has lost all 4 of their road games by 7 points or more, including losses to teams that are not close to as good as the NC State that they visit today (lost 10-17 at Virginia Tech and 22-45 at Georgia Tech). NC State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less (Strong Opinion at -6.5).