No Carolina St. @

Virginia

Fri, Sep 22
ESPN
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 309
Odds: Virginia +9, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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NC State (-9)  30   VIRGINIA  23

The weather isn’t ideal for scoring (worth -1.2 points) but both teams should move the ball pretty well. NC State has struggled offensively, averaging just 5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but the Wolfpack should be able to throw the ball much better against a Cavaliers’ defense that’s allowed 66% completions and 7.9 yards per pass play.

Virginia’s offense got a boost when Anthony Colandrea became the guy behind center after starter Tony Muskett was injured late in the opener. Colandrea has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play in his two starts and I rate him at 0.3 yppp better than average going forward (he may be better but the sample size is small and his yppp number was enhanced by a 75-yarder against James Madison). NC State has allowed 5.8 yards per play in 3 games against teams that would average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team.

My math favors NC State by just 7 points with 53 total points after adjusting for the weather.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • No Carolina St.
  • Virginia
NCST
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.0 25.0
  • Run Yards 183.7 142.0
  • YPRP 4.7 5.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.3 14.3
  • Pass Att 35.3 25.0
  • Comp % 60.4% 57.3%
  • Pass Yards 215.3 191.7
  • Sacks 1.0 3.0
  • Sack Yards 5.3 26.3
  • Sack % 2.8% 10.7%
  • Pass Plays 36.3 28.0
  • Net Pass Yards 210.0 165.3
  • YPPP 5.8 5.9

Total

  • Total Plays 75.3 53.0
  • Total Yards 393.7 307.3
  • YPPL 5.2 5.8

TO


  • Int 1.0 0.7
  • Int % 2.8% 2.7%
  • Fumbles 0.0 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.0
 
  • Points 31.0 22.0
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