Game Analysis

New Mexico (-6)  29   UTAH STATE  22

I probably would have played New Mexico here if starting quarterback Tevaka Tuioti were back from his concussion, as backup Trae Hall is a full yard per pass play worse than Tuioti on a compensated YPPP basis (4.8 yppp on 86 pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB) ad his running (5.6 yards per run on 43 career runs) isn’t nearly as impactful as Tuioti’s 164 yards on 16 runs so far this season.

However, Utah State’s horrible offense (4.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average FBS offense) could get worse with starting quarterback Jason Shelley kicked off the team. New QB Andre Peasley hasn’t proven he can throw the ball (just 53 yards on 26 career pass plays) and the Aggies’ only decent receiver, Deven Thompkins, has decided to transfer. Thompkins caught 20 of 30 passes thrown to him for an average of 7.1 yards per target, which is really good considering how bad the quarterbacking has been. The rest of the Utah State wide receivers have combined for just 3.2 yards per target, so I don’t expect much from the Aggies’ aerial attack, even against a horrible New Mexico pass defense that’s allowed 317 pass yards per game at 9.0 yards per pass play. Peasley could make an impact with his legs, however, as he’s run for his 183 yards on 13 career runs. That’s a small sample but indicative that he can move the chains with his running.

I project a 7 point win for the Lobos given the updated personnel for each team.