Game Analysis

Bowling Green (-3)  28   New Mexico State  23

I recently wrote that Connecticut was the worst bowl team in memory, but this New Mexico State team is just as bad and it’s a miracle that the Aggies got to 6 wins thanks to a shocking 35-point win as a 24-point dog against an uninterested Liberty team in week 13 and a 65-3 win over a dreadfully bad (even by FCS standards) Valparaiso team the next week. New Mexico State actually won 6 of 8 after an 0-4 start to the season but beating the likes of Hawaii, New Mexico, UMass, Lamar and Valpo means nothing and that win over a good Liberty team has an asterisk next to it.

Bowling Green is by no means a world beater themselves, but the Falcons do have wins over very good defensive teams Marshall and Toledo in which they scored a total of 76 points, so the Falcons certainly deserved this bowl bid.

The Bowling Green offense is 0.9 yards per play worse than average, which is a bit worse than a New Mexico State defense that rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average. However, the perfect dome conditions will likely lead to more passing (and more efficient passing) and quarterback Matt McDonald (0.9 yards per pass play) has an advantage over an Aggies’ pass defense that has been 1.2 yppp worse than average, allowing 6.1 yppp to FBS quarterbacks that would combine to average only 4.9 yppp against an average defense. McDonald is projected to average 7.1 yppp inside the dome and the Falcons are expected to gain close to 400 yards at 6.0 yppl in this game.

New Mexico State’s offense has looked good the last two games against an uninterested Liberty defense (that was dealing with rumors that their head coach was leaving, which was the case) and a horrible Valpo defense. However, the Aggies’ attack was mostly horrible this season (-1.0 yppl rating) and rates at 0.8 yppl if quarterback Diego Pavia plays the entire game. Pavia is a 0.2 yppl upgrade over the team’s rating but he mostly split time with Gavin Frakes. Frakes has only played garbage time recently and Pavia played the entire game against Liberty so I’ll assume he’ll be at quarterback as long as this game is competitive. Bowling Green’s defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season, so the Falcons have an advantage over New Mexico State’s offense, which I project at 340 yards and 5.6 yppl.

In addition to the advantage from the line of scrimmage the Falcons are also a couple of points better in special teams and have a 0.9 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall, the math favors Bowling Green by 7.4 points but the Falcons apply to a 7-35 ATS bowl situation that applies to favorites with a bad defense. I’ll pass this game.