Game Analysis

Lean – TEXAS STATE (-17)  39   Nevada  18

Texas State is 3-0 ATS, are averaging 44 points per game, and have a 42-31 win at Baylor to their credit. New head coach G.J. Kinne and his OC Mack Leftwich brought their offense with them after having incredible success at Incarnate Word last season. That IW offense averaged 51 points per game and 7.7 yards per play and rated at 0.8 yppl better than an average FBS team. This Texas State offense has been 0.9 yppl better than average with the starting offense in the game and there is no reason to suggest that they’re not really that good given the success with this attack at the FCS level with less talent.

Nevada’s defense has allowed an average of 43.3 points and 8.8 yppl in games against USC, Idaho and Kansas. I can understand giving up 66 points to USC, but the Wolf Pack also gave up 33 points at 7.2 yppl at home to Idaho before playing a bit better in last week’s 24-31 home loss to Kansas. Kansas still averaged 6.6 yppl in that game and the stats projected a 20-point loss – so Nevada was much worse than the 7-point margin suggests. Nevada’s defense isn’t likely to be as bad as it has been but they are bad an my I project 39.4 points for Texas State in this game.

Nevada’s offense only projects to score 18 points, as the Wolf Pack have been 1.3 yppl worse than average offensively so far this season (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) while averaging only 14.7 points per game. Texas State has been decent defensively, surrendering 5.9 yppl with their starters in the game against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing Baylor before starting QB Shapen was injured).

I’ll lean with Texas State at -17 points or less.