Nevada @

Air Force

Fri, Sep 23
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 309
Odds: Air Force -24, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Nevada (+24)  14   AIR FORCE  32

Air Force opened the season against two teams that don’t defend the run well and the Falcons racked up over 1000 rushing yards. Last week the Falcons were a big favorite against a team that does defend the run pretty well (Wyoming) and they were held to 272 yards of offense in a 14-17 loss. Tonight’s opponent has a bad defense overall but that’s because Nevada struggles against the pass, which is not as much of an issue against an Air Force team that has run the ball 86% of the time. Nevada has defended the run pretty well, allowing 4.5 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp against an average team and the Wolf Pack defense will be much better than normal against a team that runs the ball as much as Air Force does. In fact, that matchup advantage is worth 3.7 points, which is significant value, even though I expect Air Force to throw it more than usual (22% pass plays instead of their 14% average).

Nevada’s offense has been terrible, rating at 1.5 yards per play worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but they’ve averaged 34 points against the 3 worse than average defensive teams that they faced before getting shutout by an elite Iowa stop unit. Air Force may appear to have a strong defense given that 14.7 points per game that they’ve allowed, but the Falcons have given up 5.6 yppl to a trio of teams that would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense. The Fly Boys have been blessed with some positive variance in the form of allowing just 9 of 32 3rd and 4th-down conversion attempts, which is unlikely to continue going forward.

The spread on this game is huge for a game with such a low total (46.5 points) and underdogs of more than 17 points are 57.9% in games in which the total is less than 49 points. Because of their slow pace the Air Force and other option teams tend to struggle against the number as big favorites, as the option is designed to help the military academies compete against more talented teams – not less talented teams. Air Force is only 16-31-1 ATS since 2010 laying 7 points or more against other FBS teams.

Nevada is a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more.


  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Nevada
  • Air Force


  • Run Plays 39.3 29.3
  • Run Yards 166.3 131.8
  • YPRP 4.2 4.5


  • Pass Comp 16.5 20.8
  • Pass Att 28.5 33.8
  • Comp % 57.9% 61.5%
  • Pass Yards 153.3 263.0
  • Sacks 3.3 2.3
  • Sack Yards 19.5 17.5
  • Sack % 10.2% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 31.8 36.0
  • Net Pass Yards 133.8 245.5
  • YPPP 4.2 6.8


  • Total Plays 71.0 65.3
  • Total Yards 300.0 377.3
  • YPPL 4.2 5.8


  • Int 0.3 1.8
  • Int % 0.9% 5.2%
  • Fumbles 0.5 1.0
  • Turnovers 0.8 2.8
  • Points 25.5 27.0
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