Game Analysis
SOUTH FLORIDA (-6) 34 Navy 33
Navy is 59-24 ATS as a road underdog over many years, including 18-8 ATS under current head coach Ken Niumatalolo. I can see that spread success continuing tonight, as Navy’s option should work pretty well against a South Florida defensive front that has trouble tackling, as evidenced by the 233 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per rushing play that they’ve allowed this season. USF will score plenty of points too, but their run-centric offense is a good matchup for a Navy defense that defends the run well (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp against an average team) but has struggled to defend the pass (7.6 yppp allowed). Quinton Flowers will hit some big pass plays but the value here is with the military dog.
Rush
-
Run Plays
53.0
37.0
-
Run Yards
272.6
149.2
-
YPRP
5.4
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
6.8
18.4
-
Pass Att
11.8
28.8
-
Comp %
57.6%
63.9%
-
Pass Yards
122.0
248.2
-
Sacks
2.2
2.0
-
Sack Yards
13.0
14.6
-
Sack %
15.7%
6.5%
-
Pass Plays
14.0
30.8
-
Net Pass Yards
109.0
233.6
-
YPPP
7.8
7.6
Total
-
Total Plays
67.0
67.8
-
Total Yards
394.6
397.4
-
YPPL
5.9
5.9
TO
-
Int
0.4
0.6
-
Int %
3.4%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
40.1
42.0
-
Run Yards
263.1
218.3
-
YPRP
6.8
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.3
22.4
-
Pass Att
28.7
37.3
-
Comp %
60.2%
60.2%
-
Pass Yards
230.9
252.0
-
Sacks
1.4
2.7
-
Sack Yards
9.3
14.9
-
Sack %
4.7%
6.8%
-
Pass Plays
30.1
40.0
-
Net Pass Yards
221.6
237.1
-
YPPP
7.4
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
70.3
82.0
-
Total Yards
494.0
470.3
-
YPPL
7.0
5.7
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.9
-
Int %
2.5%
2.3%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Fordham |
52-16 |
0.0
W
|
49/33 |
448/171 |
9.1/5.2 |
0/1 |
4/26 |
4/45 |
107/293 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
15.3/6.1 |
555/464 |
9.9/5.7 |
| 09/10/16 Connecticut |
28-24 |
-4.0
T
|
48/32 |
247/99 |
5.1/3.1 |
1/2 |
6/24 |
8/27 |
126/255 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
12.6/8.8 |
373/354 |
6.4/5.8 |
| 09/17/16 @ Tulane |
21-14 |
-5.5
W
|
49/45 |
320/256 |
6.5/5.7 |
2/0 |
5/3 |
12/12 |
39/5 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
2.6/0.4 |
359/261 |
5.6/4.4 |
| 10/01/16 @ Air Force |
14-28 |
+7.0
L
|
31/51 |
108/181 |
3.5/3.5 |
1/0 |
17/8 |
30/15 |
219/257 |
2/1 |
6/0 |
6.1/17.1 |
327/438 |
4.9/6.6 |
| 10/08/16 Houston |
46-40 |
+17.5
W
|
63/30 |
309/148 |
4.9/4.9 |
0/1 |
3/32 |
5/50 |
76/355 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
15.2/6.8 |
385/503 |
5.7/6.1 |
| 10/22/16 Memphis |
42-28 |
+2.5
W
|
74/27 |
444/135 |
6.0/5.0 |
1/1 |
3/25 |
4/40 |
85/296 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
21.3/6.7 |
529/431 |
6.8/6.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/16 Towson |
56-20 |
0.0
W
|
37/46 |
232/155 |
6.3/3.4 |
1/3 |
13/16 |
25/41 |
213/142 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
7.9/3.2 |
445/297 |
7.0/3.3 |
| 09/10/16 Northern Ill |
48-17 |
-15.0
W
|
50/39 |
293/169 |
5.9/4.3 |
1/0 |
25/22 |
39/35 |
365/149 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
9.4/4.0 |
658/318 |
7.4/4.2 |
| 09/17/16 @ Syracuse |
45-20 |
-14.0
W
|
31/54 |
251/207 |
8.1/3.8 |
0/1 |
14/32 |
29/50 |
209/344 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
7.0/6.7 |
460/551 |
7.5/5.2 |
| 09/24/16 Florida St. |
35-55 |
+5.5
L
|
38/60 |
315/495 |
8.3/8.3 |
0/1 |
5/11 |
14/19 |
135/152 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
7.9/6.9 |
450/647 |
8.2/7.9 |
| 10/01/16 @ Cincinnati |
45-20 |
-5.5
W
|
46/33 |
238/147 |
5.2/4.5 |
0/1 |
22/23 |
33/41 |
217/244 |
0/3 |
1/2 |
6.4/5.7 |
455/391 |
5.7/5.1 |
| 10/08/16 East Carolina |
38-22 |
-16.0
T
|
42/32 |
306/172 |
7.3/5.4 |
1/0 |
21/33 |
29/56 |
250/304 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
8.6/5.2 |
556/476 |
7.8/5.2 |
| 10/15/16 Connecticut |
42-27 |
-19.5
L
|
45/30 |
319/106 |
7.1/3.5 |
2/0 |
23/22 |
37/39 |
208/272 |
2/0 |
1/6 |
5.5/6.0 |
527/378 |
6.3/5.0 |
| 10/21/16 @ Temple |
30-46 |
-7.0
L
|
29/46 |
185/336 |
6.4/7.3 |
0/0 |
11/14 |
20/21 |
167/195 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
7.0/8.5 |
352/531 |
6.6/7.7 |
South Florida