Game Analysis

Lean – NORTH TEXAS (-6.5/-7)  39   Navy  28

The line is pretty fair here, as my math model favors North Texas by 7.1 points, but that could be more if North Texas coaches decide to throw the ball more than usual to take advantage of Navy’s horrible pass defense (6.8 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defense).

Regardless, North Texas applies to a 70-16-4 ATS home favorite momentum situation based on last week’s high-scoring victory and games involving two high-scoring offenses tend to favor the home team (199-108-3 ATS situation based on that premise applies). Also, Navy applies to a 20-59-2 ATS situation that applies to unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) on the road against a good opponent.