Navy @

East Carolina

Fri, Nov 29
ESPN
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 359
Odds: East Carolina -2.5, Total: 56

Game Analysis

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Note: This Best Bet was released early in the week when ECU was a 1-point dog – before rumors that Navy QB Horvath might not play. ECU is still a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 or less with Horvath downgraded to doubtful.

2-Star Best Bet – **EAST CAROLINA (+1)  34   Navy  24

Update: It is looking more and more like Navy QB Blake Horvath will not play. The backup got the first team reps in practice all week and the line move to -2.5 -115 suggests that Horvath will not play. ECU is now a 1-Star Best Bet up to -3 points.

East Carolina has averaged 501 total yards per game and 7.5 yards per play in 5 games since Katin Houser took over as the starting quarterback and the Pirates have won 4 in a row heading into this contest against a Navy team with a defense that isn’t likely to stop ECU’s momentum.

The Midshipmen have allowed 5.6 yppl, which is decent, but they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average FBS defense and the Middies gave up an average of 43 points to the two good offensive teams that they faced (51 to Notre Dame and 35 to Tulane in their most recent game).

What I made this play I assumed that Navy’s star QB Blake Horvath would play but there’s a decent chance that he may not play, as the offensive coordinator has stated that they’re preparing to play without him. I like ECU even if Horvath is 100%, as the Pirates’ defensive strength is their run defense (0.4 yprp better than average) and they held Army’s option attack to 5.5 yards per run, which is 0.8 yprp better than average defense would playing Army on the road. Teams that face option teams after having already faced an option team earlier in the season tend to play relatively better than teams seeing the option for the first time and Navy’s offense isn’t as good as the Army offense.

In addition to the line value (even if Horvath plays), the Pirates apply to a 118-47-2 ATS home momentum situation and I’ll take East Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and 1-Star to -3 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Navy
  • East Carolina
NAVY
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 44.2 34.7
  • Run Yards 258.3 178.7
  • YPRP 5.8 5.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 7.9 18.3
  • Pass Att 13.9 30.7
  • Comp % 56.8% 59.6%
  • Pass Yards 127.2 215.4
  • Sacks 0.9 2.2
  • Sack Yards 5.7 12.9
  • Sack % 6.1% 6.7%
  • Pass Plays 14.8 32.9
  • Net Pass Yards 121.5 202.5
  • YPPP 8.2 6.2

Total

  • Total Plays 59.0 67.6
  • Total Yards 379.8 381.2
  • YPPL 6.4 5.6

TO


  • Int 0.6 1.3
  • Int % 4.3% 4.2%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.6
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.9
 
  • Points 32.1 23.5
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