Game Analysis
Lean – Under (40) – Army (-6.5) 20 Navy 13
Note: The total was 38 when I posted the analysis.
The games between the Military Academies, who all run the option offense, tend to be lower scoring than projected, as teams that run the option and practice against it every day are best suited to defend the option offense.
Games between option teams have gone 47-11-4 UNDER since 2004, when I started tracking totals in my database, and attempts by bookmakers to severely lower the total in these games has not worked, as the under is 27-4-2 in the last 33 games between Army, Navy and Air Force, including 24-2-1 Under when the total is higher than 37 points.
The last 12 Army-Navy games have had an average total of 43.9 points and have gone 10-1-1 Under with an average total points scored of just 31.3 points. I have a formula that takes my math model predicted score to predict the score of a game involving two option teams and that formula projects just 33.2 points in this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
44.7
34.5
-
Run Yards
261.8
175.6
-
YPRP
5.9
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
8.3
18.4
-
Pass Att
14.4
30.9
-
Comp %
57.6%
59.4%
-
Pass Yards
130.6
210.3
-
Sacks
0.8
2.2
-
Sack Yards
5.2
13.0
-
Sack %
5.4%
6.6%
-
Pass Plays
15.2
33.1
-
Net Pass Yards
125.5
197.3
-
YPPP
8.3
6.0
Total
-
Total Plays
59.9
67.6
-
Total Yards
387.3
372.9
-
YPPL
6.5
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.3
-
Int %
3.8%
4.1%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
53.5
23.9
-
Run Yards
317.6
118.3
-
YPRP
5.9
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
4.7
19.5
-
Pass Att
7.8
30.4
-
Comp %
59.6%
64.1%
-
Pass Yards
83.2
185.6
-
Sacks
0.5
1.8
-
Sack Yards
2.3
10.3
-
Sack %
6.0%
5.4%
-
Pass Plays
8.3
32.2
-
Net Pass Yards
80.8
175.3
-
YPPP
9.7
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
61.8
56.1
-
Total Yards
398.4
293.6
-
YPPL
6.4
5.2
TO
-
Int
0.1
1.4
-
Int %
1.0%
4.7%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.2
-
Turnovers
0.4
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 Bucknell |
49-21 |
0.0
W
|
51/34 |
314/158 |
6.2/4.6 |
0/2 |
10/14 |
19/29 |
166/125 |
2/0 |
1/4 |
8.3/3.8 |
480/283 |
6.8/4.2 |
| 09/07/24 Temple |
38-11 |
-13.0
W
|
50/18 |
304/49 |
6.1/2.7 |
0/1 |
5/30 |
9/46 |
112/266 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
12.4/5.7 |
416/315 |
7.1/4.8 |
| 09/21/24 Memphis |
56-44 |
+9.5
W
|
37/37 |
344/275 |
9.3/7.4 |
0/0 |
10/33 |
14/57 |
192/384 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
12.0/6.6 |
536/659 |
10.1/6.9 |
| 09/28/24 @ UAB |
41-18 |
-4.5
W
|
49/40 |
265/205 |
5.4/5.1 |
0/0 |
10/14 |
12/22 |
187/185 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
15.6/7.4 |
452/390 |
7.4/6.0 |
| 10/05/24 @ Air Force |
34-7 |
-9.5
W
|
47/45 |
295/184 |
6.3/4.1 |
0/0 |
9/5 |
15/9 |
134/97 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
8.9/8.8 |
429/281 |
6.9/5.0 |
| 10/19/24 Charlotte |
51-17 |
-16.0
W
|
40/44 |
180/212 |
4.5/4.8 |
0/1 |
7/8 |
13/21 |
117/147 |
0/4 |
0/4 |
9.0/5.9 |
297/359 |
5.6/5.2 |
| 10/26/24 Notre Dame |
14-51 |
+14.0
L
|
42/39 |
238/270 |
5.7/6.9 |
5/0 |
7/15 |
14/25 |
88/204 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
6.3/7.8 |
326/474 |
5.8/7.3 |
| 11/02/24 @ Rice |
10-24 |
-13.0
L
|
38/22 |
153/121 |
4.0/5.5 |
0/1 |
10/28 |
21/40 |
109/230 |
2/1 |
2/1 |
4.7/5.6 |
262/351 |
4.3/5.6 |
| 11/09/24 @ South Florida |
28-7 |
-4.5
W
|
56/21 |
333/86 |
5.9/4.1 |
1/1 |
6/26 |
11/44 |
46/256 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
3.5/5.3 |
379/342 |
5.5/5.0 |
| 11/16/24 Tulane |
0-35 |
+6.5
L
|
32/47 |
157/227 |
4.9/4.8 |
1/0 |
5/10 |
11/14 |
64/131 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
4.9/8.7 |
221/358 |
4.9/5.8 |
| 11/29/24 @ East Carolina |
34-20 |
+2.5
W
|
50/32 |
297/145 |
5.9/4.5 |
1/0 |
12/19 |
19/33 |
165/145 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
8.7/4.1 |
462/290 |
6.7/4.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/30/24 Lehigh |
42-7 |
0.0
W
|
56/33 |
372/172 |
6.6/5.2 |
0/0 |
5/10 |
8/19 |
57/110 |
0/2 |
0/0 |
7.1/5.8 |
429/282 |
6.7/5.4 |
| 09/07/24 @ Florida Atl. |
24-7 |
+3.0
W
|
55/16 |
412/47 |
7.5/2.9 |
1/0 |
1/25 |
4/37 |
44/193 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
11.0/5.2 |
456/240 |
7.7/4.5 |
| 09/21/24 Rice |
37-14 |
-7.0
W
|
56/12 |
288/60 |
5.1/5.0 |
0/0 |
8/28 |
12/44 |
120/204 |
0/2 |
0/0 |
10.0/4.6 |
408/264 |
6.0/4.7 |
| 09/26/24 @ Temple |
42-14 |
-12.5
W
|
57/15 |
417/32 |
7.3/2.1 |
0/0 |
3/19 |
6/30 |
72/187 |
0/1 |
0/7 |
12.0/5.1 |
489/219 |
7.8/4.2 |
| 10/05/24 @ Tulsa |
49-7 |
-13.0
W
|
39/41 |
322/167 |
8.3/4.1 |
0/0 |
6/21 |
6/30 |
158/101 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
22.6/3.3 |
480/268 |
10.4/3.7 |
| 10/12/24 UAB |
44-10 |
-27.0
W
|
56/20 |
413/84 |
7.4/4.2 |
0/0 |
3/25 |
8/39 |
102/219 |
0/2 |
0/4 |
12.8/5.1 |
515/303 |
8.0/4.8 |
| 10/19/24 East Carolina |
45-28 |
-16.0
W
|
54/20 |
297/92 |
5.5/4.6 |
0/0 |
7/24 |
10/38 |
147/234 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
14.7/6.2 |
444/326 |
6.9/5.6 |
| 11/02/24 Air Force |
20-3 |
-18.0
L
|
41/34 |
221/154 |
5.4/4.5 |
0/0 |
5/10 |
8/20 |
40/55 |
0/3 |
1/6 |
4.4/2.1 |
261/209 |
5.2/3.5 |
| 11/09/24 @ North Texas |
14-3 |
-6.0
W
|
60/17 |
300/72 |
5.0/4.2 |
1/0 |
2/24 |
4/37 |
5/211 |
1/2 |
1/1 |
1.0/5.6 |
305/283 |
4.7/5.1 |
| 11/23/24 @ Notre Dame |
14-49 |
+16.0
L
|
57/28 |
207/275 |
3.6/9.8 |
1/0 |
4/14 |
9/18 |
23/189 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
2.3/10.5 |
230/464 |
3.4/10.1 |
| 11/30/24 UTSA |
29-24 |
-6.5
L
|
56/24 |
224/130 |
4.0/5.4 |
1/1 |
10/17 |
17/28 |
185/199 |
0/2 |
2/1 |
9.7/6.9 |
409/329 |
5.5/6.2 |
| 12/06/24 Tulane |
35-14 |
+5.0
W
|
55/27 |
338/135 |
6.1/5.0 |
0/1 |
2/17 |
2/25 |
17/201 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
8.5/7.7 |
355/336 |
6.2/6.3 |
Navy
vs 
Army