Game Analysis
Lean – Air Force Team Total Under 13 or more
Navy (-9.5) 23 AIR FORCE 10
The Under is 47-11-4 in games between the 3 military academies since 2001, as teams that run the option know best how to defend the option since they see it every day in practice.
I won’t buck that trend but I could see this one going over given how diversified the Navy attack is this season, as they have a quarterback in Blake Norvath that’s completed 68% of his 44 passes for 14.5 yards per attempt.
If I had to bet this game I think the best play would be the Air Force Team Total Under 13 or more, as the Falcons have averaged just 12.5 points per game and are now facing a team that really knows how to shut down the option. Air Force only scored 7 points against San Jose State in week 2 and that’s relative because the Spartans’ new head coach Ken Niumatalolo was the head coach at Navy for 15 years and his staff also knows how to defend the option. Air Force managed just 187 yards at 2.9 yards per play against San Jose State and has averaged only 3.8 yppl for the season.
Rush
-
Run Plays
46.8
32.3
-
Run Yards
306.8
171.8
-
YPRP
6.6
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
8.8
22.8
-
Pass Att
13.5
38.5
-
Comp %
64.8%
59.1%
-
Pass Yards
169.3
252.0
-
Sacks
0.8
2.3
-
Sack Yards
5.0
12.0
-
Sack %
5.3%
5.5%
-
Pass Plays
14.3
40.8
-
Net Pass Yards
164.3
240.0
-
YPPP
11.5
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
61.0
73.0
-
Total Yards
471.0
411.8
-
YPPL
7.7
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.3
-
Int %
3.7%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.8
-
Turnovers
0.5
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
50.0
32.3
-
Run Yards
186.3
153.8
-
YPRP
3.7
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
5.0
17.0
-
Pass Att
13.5
27.3
-
Comp %
37.0%
62.4%
-
Pass Yards
60.8
199.8
-
Sacks
0.5
1.0
-
Sack Yards
4.8
7.5
-
Sack %
3.6%
3.5%
-
Pass Plays
14.0
28.3
-
Net Pass Yards
56.0
192.3
-
YPPP
4.0
6.8
Total
-
Total Plays
64.0
60.5
-
Total Yards
242.3
346.0
-
YPPL
3.8
5.7
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.3
-
Int %
5.6%
0.9%
-
Fumbles
0.5
1.5
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 Bucknell |
49-21 |
0.0
W
|
51/34 |
314/158 |
6.2/4.6 |
0/2 |
10/14 |
19/29 |
166/125 |
2/0 |
1/4 |
8.3/3.8 |
480/283 |
6.8/4.2 |
09/07/24 Temple |
38-11 |
-13.0
W
|
50/18 |
304/49 |
6.1/2.7 |
0/1 |
5/30 |
9/46 |
112/266 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
12.4/5.7 |
416/315 |
7.1/4.8 |
09/21/24 Memphis |
56-44 |
+9.5
W
|
37/37 |
344/275 |
9.3/7.4 |
0/0 |
10/33 |
14/57 |
192/384 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
12.0/6.6 |
536/659 |
10.1/6.9 |
09/28/24 @ UAB |
41-18 |
-4.5
W
|
49/40 |
265/205 |
5.4/5.1 |
0/0 |
10/14 |
12/22 |
187/185 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
15.6/7.4 |
452/390 |
7.4/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 Merrimack |
21-6 |
0.0
W
|
55/26 |
169/117 |
3.1/4.5 |
0/3 |
6/17 |
14/30 |
71/98 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
5.1/3.2 |
240/215 |
3.5/3.8 |
09/07/24 San Jose St. |
7-17 |
-3.5
L
|
45/29 |
155/78 |
3.4/2.7 |
0/0 |
6/17 |
19/33 |
32/241 |
2/1 |
0/2 |
1.7/6.9 |
187/319 |
2.9/5.0 |
09/14/24 @ Baylor |
3-31 |
+17.0
L
|
56/37 |
195/230 |
3.5/6.2 |
2/3 |
2/18 |
8/24 |
25/242 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
3.1/9.7 |
220/472 |
3.4/7.6 |
09/28/24 @ Wyoming |
19-31 |
-4.0
L
|
44/37 |
226/190 |
5.1/5.1 |
0/0 |
6/16 |
13/22 |
96/188 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
6.4/8.5 |
322/378 |
5.5/6.4 |