Navy @

Air Force

Sat, Oct 5
CBS
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 347
Odds: Air Force +9.5, Total: 37

Game Analysis

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Lean – Air Force Team Total Under 13 or more

Navy (-9.5)  23   AIR FORCE  10

The Under is 47-11-4 in games between the 3 military academies since 2001, as teams that run the option know best how to defend the option since they see it every day in practice.

I won’t buck that trend but I could see this one going over given how diversified the Navy attack is this season, as they have a quarterback in Blake Norvath that’s completed 68% of his 44 passes for 14.5 yards per attempt.

If I had to bet this game I think the best play would be the Air Force Team Total Under 13 or more, as the Falcons have averaged just 12.5 points per game and are now facing a team that really knows how to shut down the option. Air Force only scored 7 points against San Jose State in week 2 and that’s relative because the Spartans’ new head coach Ken Niumatalolo was the head coach at Navy for 15 years and his staff also knows how to defend the option. Air Force managed just 187 yards at 2.9 yards per play against San Jose State and has averaged only 3.8 yppl for the season.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Navy
  • Air Force
NAVY
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 46.8 32.3
  • Run Yards 306.8 171.8
  • YPRP 6.6 5.3




Pass





  • Pass Comp 8.8 22.8
  • Pass Att 13.5 38.5
  • Comp % 64.8% 59.1%
  • Pass Yards 169.3 252.0
  • Sacks 0.8 2.3
  • Sack Yards 5.0 12.0
  • Sack % 5.3% 5.5%
  • Pass Plays 14.3 40.8
  • Net Pass Yards 164.3 240.0
  • YPPP 11.5 5.9

Total

  • Total Plays 61.0 73.0
  • Total Yards 471.0 411.8
  • YPPL 7.7 5.6

TO


  • Int 0.5 1.3
  • Int % 3.7% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.0 0.8
  • Turnovers 0.5 2.0
 
  • Points 46.0 23.5
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