Navy @

Air Force

Sat, Oct 1
CBS
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 149
Odds: Air Force -14, Total: 38

Game Analysis

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Lean – Navy (+14)  13   AIR FORCE  23

Teams the run the triple-option offense know how to defend that offense, which is why the under is now 50-15-3 in games between Navy, Army, and Air Force. The market has adjusted for that trend, as the totals have been much lower recently. However, the last 4 such games, all with totals of 40 points or lower, have still gone under with an average of just 26.5 total points scored.

Historically, the option team versus option team games have been about 6 points lower scoring than my math model projects, which puts this one at 36 points. I lean with Navy at +14 or more as big underdogs in games with low totals tends to do well and my math calls for a 10 point game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Navy
  • Air Force
NAVY
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 61.3 24.7
  • Run Yards 202.7 90.7
  • YPRP 3.3 3.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 5.0 22.0
  • Pass Att 11.3 33.7
  • Comp % 44.1% 65.3%
  • Pass Yards 128.7 290.3
  • Sacks 1.0 3.7
  • Sack Yards 2.7 20.0
  • Sack % 8.1% 9.8%
  • Pass Plays 12.3 37.3
  • Net Pass Yards 126.0 270.3
  • YPPP 10.2 7.2

Total

  • Total Plays 73.7 62.0
  • Total Yards 328.7 361.0
  • YPPL 4.5 5.8

TO


  • Int 0.7 0.3
  • Int % 5.9% 1.0%
  • Fumbles 1.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 2.3 1.0
 
  • Points 14.3 23.7
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