Game Analysis

Note: QB Clark has been upgraded to probable for Missouri State.

Lean – Missouri State (-3/-2.5)  29   NEW MEXICO STATE  22 (Clark at QB for Missouri State)

Missouri State  24   NEW MEXICO STATE  23 (Bailey at QB for Missouri State)

This game hinges on whether Missouri State’s starting quarterback Jacob Clark returns to play tonight after missing the last game. The line move suggests that it’s likely going to be backup Duece Bailey behind center for a second straight game.

Clark has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback) while Bailey’s performance in a 22-20 win over Middle Tennessee State is not nearly as good as it seems. Bailey completed just 16 of 31 passes and his 6.8 yppp average against a horrible MTS pass defense (that would allow 8.1 yppp at home to an average QB) was skewed upwards by one 76-yard completion. Bailey didn’t throw an interception but his 8 passes defended against equates to 1.6 interceptions and his completion percentage would predict 1.2 interceptions.

Bailey is significantly worse than Clark based on what he’s shown so far but the Bears should still be better on offense than New Mexico State (1.1 yppl worse than average) and they also have a slightly better defense.

Missouri State would be a Lean at -3 or less only if Clark is named the starting quarterback.