Mississippi @


Sat, Oct 16
SEC Network
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 193
Odds: Tennessee +2.5, Total: 82.5

Game Analysis

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Note: The line has dropped out of Best Bet range since I released this play on Monday. I still like Tennessee as a Strong Opinion at +1.

2-Star Best Bet – **TENNESSEE (+3.5 -115)  42   Mississippi  38

Mississippi is obviously an elite offensive team, but Tennessee’s attack hasn’t been that much worse since Hendon Hooker took over at quarterback and the Volunteers have a much better defense and should not be getting points at home in this game.

Hendon Hooker was great in his two years at Virginia Tech and I was surprised when he didn’t win the starting quarterback job to start the season. Hooker took over for the ineffective Joe Milton midway through the Pitt loss in week 2 and he’s averaged 8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback (Milton was 2.0 yppp worse than average). The Volunteers’ rushing attack is also potent, as they’ve averaged 271 ground yards per game at 6.0 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp). Tennessee’s fast-paced offense is 1.2 yppl better than average with Hooker behind center and I project that attack to gain 600 yards at 7.0 yppl against a mediocre Ole’ Miss defense (allowed 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense) that’s allowed 93 points to good offensive teams the last two weeks.

I was impressed with how well Mississippi’s offense performed last week against a good Arkansas defense, but the Rebels struggled the previous week (293 yards at 4.6 yppl) on the road against a comparable Alabama defense and they face an equally good defense this week on the road. Tennessee has yielded just 21.5 points per game and only 4.8 yppl to a collection of teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. The Vols have faced two really good offensive teams with mixed results. They gave up 7.4 yppl on the road at Florida but held a potent Pitt offense to just 5.1 yppl at home in week 2. Mississippi’s offense has been 1.6 yppl better than average (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) and they’re projected at 530 yards at 6.3 yppl against a good defense that has played their best at home.

The Ole’ Miss offense is the best unit on the field, but that attack is just 0.4 yppl better than Tennessee’s offense with Hooker and the Vols’ defense is 0.7 yppl better than the Rebels’ defense. The wrong team is favored in this game, and I’ll take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 at -110 odds or better and for 1-Star at +2 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Mississippi
  • Tennessee


  • Run Plays 43.8 41.6
  • Run Yards 261.4 210.2
  • YPRP 6.0 5.1


  • Pass Comp 21.2 20.6
  • Pass Att 30.8 32.2
  • Comp % 68.8% 64.0%
  • Pass Yards 312.4 238.6
  • Sacks 1.6 2.6
  • Sack Yards 12.0 8.0
  • Sack % 4.9% 7.5%
  • Pass Plays 32.4 34.8
  • Net Pass Yards 300.4 230.6
  • YPPP 9.3 6.6


  • Total Plays 76.2 76.4
  • Total Yards 561.8 440.8
  • YPPL 7.4 5.8


  • Int 0.0 0.4
  • Int % 0.0% 1.2%
  • Fumbles 0.6 1.0
  • Turnovers 0.6 1.4
  • Points 46.2 31.0
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