Game Analysis

Best Bet – *Iowa (+7 at -115)  17   Mississippi State  16

Best Bet Team Total – *Under (24) Mississippi State

Lean – Under (40.5)

The math model projects 35.7 total points scored but I expect this game to be lower scoring than that given how much worse, relatively, Mississippi State’s offense was against good defensive teams. The one-dimensional Bulldogs struggled against good defensive teams while racking up huge numbers against weaker defenses. In fact, Miss State averaged 7.6 yards per play and 41.2 points in 6 games against average or worse FBS defenses that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a great runner but he’s an extremely inaccurate passer and he really struggled against better than average defenses, who could afford to single cover his receivers while putting a spy on him to limit his running. Mississippi State averaged only 4.2 yards per play and 7.8 points against 5 better than average defensive teams (Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, LSU, and Alabama) while scoring 7 points or fewer in 4 of those 5 games. Those teams would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average offense, so the Bulldogs were 0.5 yppl worse than average against better than average defensive teams while being 1.5 yppl better than average against mediocre or bad defensive teams. Overall, Miss State was 0.6 yppl better than average offensively but that rating was skewed by those huge offensive numbers against bad defensive teams and they’re not going to be 0.6 yppl better than average against Iowa’s strong defense. The Hawkeyes are 1.1 yppl better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense) and their defensive rating is slightly better than the average rating of the 5 good defensive teams that Miss State averaged only 7.8 points against. The math model projects only 5.1 yards per play and 18.6 points for Mississippi State even if they really are 0.6 yppl better than average and a regression equation predicting the Bulldogs’ yards per play as a function of the opposing defensive rating (adjusted for site) would predict just 4.4 yppl for them in this game, which is think is very reasonable considering that Fitzgerald averaged just 3.4 yards per pass play against the 6 teams he faced that have a better than average pass defense. Those teams would allow 5.0 yppp to an average team, which is pretty close to the 5.2 yppp that Iowa’s defense would allow to an average quarterback on a neutral field. The regression equation for Fitzgerald’s passing predicts just 4.0 yppp against a team with Iowa’s pass defense rating. Iowa’s run defense is also elite, as the Hawkeyes rank 5^th in the nation in compensated run defense (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yprp against an average defense). The Hawkeyes two most recent games were actually against teams with good running quarterbacks (Illinois and Nebraska) and they held those two elite running teams to just 4.8 yprp, which is 2.1 yprp lower than an average defense would hold those teams to. I project just 271 yards at 4.6 yppl for Mississippi State in this game.

Mississippi State has a dominating defense that allowed just 12.5 points per game and even held Alabama to 4.8 yards per play. Iowa’s offense rates as just average (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and the Hawkeyes will be without one of their two star tight ends (Fant is sitting out). Fant’s absence actually isn’t that detrimental, as Fant averaged 8.1 yards per target while the rest of the tight ends and receivers combined to average 7.9 YPT, including 11.7 yards per target from the other two tight ends (758 yards on 65 targets). So, the adjustment for being without Fant is very minimal. Iowa’s not going to score much either, as they’re projected at just 263 yards at 4.06 yppl based on the straight math and I get 4.04 yppl using a regression equation for Iowa’s offense as a function of opposing defense. Iowa only faced one really good defense in Penn State and the Hawkeyes were held to just 4.1 yppl in that game but quarterback Nate Stanley injured his thumb on a helmet early in the game and could grip the ball for most of the game, which showed in his 18 for 49 passing.

The straight math only favored Mississippi State by 1.8 points with a total of 35.4 points, which assumed that the Bulldogs’ offense was relatively as good against good defenses as they were overall. There is plenty of evidence that is not the case given the high statistical significant of the regression equations and I now get a predicted score of 17-16 in favor of Iowa. I actually think there is a decent chance that Iowa scores fewer than 17 points given that Mississippi State allowed just 12.5 points per game but there is certainly value on Iowa plus the points and even more value on the Miss State Team Total under 24 points, which is a ridiculous number given the 7.8 points per game they scored against good defensive teams and Iowa’s 17.4 points per game allowed average. Mississippi State’s games against those 5 good defensive teams obviously all went well under the total, averaging just 26.4 TOTAL points in those games against Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, LSU, and Alabama with the average Over/Under line in those games being 51.4 points.

I’ll take Iowa in a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more. I’ll also play 1-Star on Mississippi State’s Team Total Under 21.5 points or higher, And, I’ll lean with the Under in the game.