Game Analysis

Lean – Under (66.5) – Indiana (-9)  35   Mississippi  26

Mississippi will be without their 3 top pass-catchers and top running back, as Elijah Moore, Braylon Sanders, and TE Kenny Yeboah have all opted-out while RB Jerrion Ealy is injured and likely won’t play. The 3 receivers are a huge blow to a potent offense (40.7 ppg and 7.1 yppl), as they combined for 2093 receiving yards at a ridiculous 13.2 yards per target. Only two Rebels’ receivers remain that caught more than 1 pass and Jonathan Mingo and Dontario Drummond combined for a more modest 8.9 yards on 74 targets. Two offensive linemen are also reportedly out for Ole’ Miss and the overall damage to the offense is calculated at 8.5 points based on my math (even if the linemen play).

Indiana will be without injured starting quarterback Michael Penix but backup Jack Tuttle has done a workmanlike job in his place, completing 67% of his mostly short passes (18 of 27 and 8.9 yards per completion) against good pass defenses (5 passes against Maryland and 22 against Wisconsin) while throwing zero interceptions. Indiana will likely be content to have Tuttle continue with the ball-control passing game while hoping that their horrible rushing attack (3.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) can do enough against Mississippi’s bad run defense (0.7 yprp worse than average) to give Tuttle manageable third-down distances to work with. Indiana threw the ball 55% of the time with Penix at quarterback but they ran it 55% of the time against Wisconsin, despite averaging only 3.3 yprp against a really good run defense. I suspect the Hoosieers will continue to run the ball more than normal against Mississippi, which would slow the pace of the game in addition to lowering the Hoosiers’ projected yards per play (projected to average 4.2 yprp and 8.0 yppp). I have Indiana throwing the ball just as much as they run it (rather than 55% runs as in Tuttle’s other start) but that would still slow the projected pace some and lower the Hoosiers’ yards per play.

Mississippi may also slow their normally fast pace with all the new starters, although I will assume that they do not. The math favors the Under in this game even without a slower pace by the Rebels. The math also only favors Indiana by 6 ½ points but Ole’ Miss coach Lane Kiffin says there are a couple of other players that may sit out so I’ll assume the line is fair concerning the side. I’ll lean Under.