Game Analysis

Minnesota (-9)  26   Virginia Tech  16

Virginia Tech is missing a ton of key players for this game but it appears as if the market has adjusted correctly and I don’t see enough value to play this game.

Minnesota’s offense was 0.1 yppl worse than average in the regular season, averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That unit should be intact for this game aside from a couple of offensive linemen that combined for 16 starts – most notably LT Ersery (12 starts). I rate the Gophers’ attack at -0.3 yppl heading into this game barring any other late defections.

The Virginia Tech defense was 0.7 yppl better than average this season, allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit (adjusted for facing the worst of the quarterbacks against Marshall, Stanford and Georgia Tech). That unit will look nothing like the one from the regular season, as 7 starters are expected to miss this game, including All-American DE Powell-Ryland (16 sacks!). My algorithm projects the Hokies’ defense to be 7.3 points worse in this game (based on Minnesota’s projected 63 plays).

The Virginia Tech offense was a disappointment this season, as they were significantly worse than last season despite having nearly everyone back. The Hokies were just 0.2 yppl better than average, gaining 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average FBS attack. All indications are that starting quarterback Kyron Drones is still out with injury and backup Collin Schlee is questionable to doubtful to play, which leaves Pop Watson in line to potentially get his second start. Watson struggled off the bench against Duke in week 13 (98 yards on 33 pass plays) but after a week of practice with the first team offense Watson was sharp in a 37-17 win over Virginia – completing 14 of 21 passes for 254 yards (10.3 yards per pass play with the 2 sacks included) while running for 65 yards on 9 runs.

I still don’t think either quarterback would be as good as Drones (based on their lower completion percentages) and the Hokies are also missing their star running back Tuten, their top two receivers (Da’Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane) and 3 starting offensive linemen. The absence of Tuten (1159 yards at 6.3 ypr) and three starting linemen should significantly hurt the offense but not having Lane and Felton could be a plus. Those two may have been first and second on the team in catches (38 and 32 receptions) but they combined for just 826 yards on 121 targets (6.8 yards per target) while the rest of the wide receivers combined for 1028 yards on 100 targets, which is 10.3 YPT. Tight end Benji Watson also averaged 7.9 YPT on 42 targets. I think not having Felton, in particular, is a plus given his horrible 5.8 YPT and 35% success rate. However, despite what I think is an upgrade at receiver, the rest of the offense is much worse, and I rate that unit at 0.4 yppl worse than average for this game.

Minnesota’s defense was elite this season, as the Gophers yielded just 17.5 points per game and 4.7 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team (adjusted for facing Michigan with Orji at QB). Star CB Justin Walley has declared for the NFL draft, and I’ll assume he won’t play (although he is scheduled to play in the East-West Shrine game, which sometimes is an indication of playing in the team’s bowl game too). Walley led the team in passes defended (12) despite missing two games and he is projected to be worth 1.0 points.

Overall the math favors Minnesota by 10.0 points with a total of 42.0 points. Virginia Tech does apply to a 60-16-4 ATS bowl situation that plays on teams that underperformed against the spread in the regular season. However, I don’t really think that has any bearing given that so many of the Hokies’ starters won’t be playing in this game.