Minnesota @

Michigan St.

Sat, Sep 24
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 337
Odds: Michigan St. +3, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Minnesota (-2)  28   MICHIGAN STATE  18

Michigan State entered this season as an overrated team and the Spartans were on the cusp of being one of my season win totals (under). After two easy wins against outmanned MAC teams the Spartans were demolished by 28-39 at Washington in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates (they were outplayed 5.2 yards per play to 6.9 yppl and the stats project a 19-point loss). Michigan State has been mediocre offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) and their overrated defense has been just 0.4 yppl better than average, as the 5.0 yppl they’ve allowed has come against teams that would average only 5.4 yppl. That unit shut down two bad offensive teams before getting exposed last week by the Huskies, who gained over 500 yards of offense.

Minnesota has faced three bad teams and the Gophers have dominated those games statistically more than expected, outgaining those teams by a margin of 4.5 yppl with starters in the game and winning by an average score of 49.7 to 5.7 points. Michigan State beat up on the two bad teams they faced also but the average game rating by Minnesota in their 3 games against bad teams was +13.4 points (compared to an average FBS team rating of zero) while Michigan State’s two games against bad teams had an average game rating of +1.8 points. The Spartans’ average game rating is just +0.3 points after last week’s blowout loss at Washington and Minnesota is clearly the better team, even without star WR Chris Autman-Bell, who is out for the season and is worth 1.6 points to the Gophers’ offense. The absence of Autman-Bell may be matched if Michigan State’s star receiver Jayden Reed is out again (he’s missed the last 1.5 games and is questionable this week).

My preseason ratings would have favored Minnesota by 3 points in this game and the Gophers have been significantly better than Michigan State so far this season. Minnesota is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 (-115 odds) or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Minnesota
  • Michigan St.


  • Run Plays 53.3 22.7
  • Run Yards 323.3 84.3
  • YPRP 6.1 3.7


  • Pass Comp 15.3 9.3
  • Pass Att 22.0 22.7
  • Comp % 69.7% 41.2%
  • Pass Yards 249.7 78.7
  • Sacks 0.3 2.0
  • Sack Yards 2.3 18.0
  • Sack % 1.5% 8.1%
  • Pass Plays 22.3 24.7
  • Net Pass Yards 247.3 60.7
  • YPPP 11.1 2.5


  • Total Plays 75.7 47.3
  • Total Yards 570.7 145.0
  • YPPL 7.5 3.1


  • Int 0.3 0.7
  • Int % 1.5% 3.0%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.3
  • Turnovers 0.7 1.0
  • Points 49.7 5.7
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