Minnesota vs

Georgia Tech

at Detroit
Wed, Dec 26
2:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 231
Odds: Georgia Tech -5.5, Total: 56.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Best Bet – *Minnesota (+6)  28   Georgia Tech  25

Best Bet – *Under (60)

Rotation #231 – Wednesday, 2:15 pm Pacific

Minnesota will have some players suspended for this game, including at least one starter, but I was going to play Minnesota at +3.5 points before that news was announced and it’s likely that the market over-adjusted for the suspensions and for the absence of leading tackler Blake Cashman and OT Donnell Greene, who are both sitting out to protect themselves from injury leading up to the NFL draft. Cashman actually is worth about 1.5 points based on his very high tackles for loss number (15 TFL) but Minnesota played two games without Greene and their offense actually performed relatively better in those games, so I didn’t adjust for that. Regarding the unknown suspended players, there aren’t that many other players on the team that really make a significant difference aside from Cashman, who I already adjusted for, and quarterback Tanner Morgan, who has been quoted as saying he’s excited for the game (which I would assume means he’s playing). As far as the Under goes, the suspensions are just as likely to hurt us as they are to help us. I did take a bit of a risk with the side bet but my math favors the Gophers by 2.4 points without knowing which players are suspended and without adjusting for them – but I figure they can’t be worth more than 2 points given the lack of remaining stars on that team.

The reason I like Minnesota is two-fold. The offense went from bad to pretty good when inaccurate freshman Zack Annexstad was replaced by Tanner Morgan in the middle of the season and the defense improved dramatically when defensive coordinator Rob Smith and his complicated defense was replaced before week 11. Annexstad didn’t even start for his high school team his senior season and completed just 51.9% of his passes this season before getting replaced. Morgan completed 59% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass play (excluding garbage time against backups) and rated at 1.1 yppp better than average after adjusting for opposing pass defenses faced. Annexstad was 0.4 yppp worse than average, so the offense is significantly better now than their season numbers due to how bad Annexstad was.

Georgia Tech’s defense, meanwhile, is good defending the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yprp against an average team) and struggled defending the pass (7.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp), so Morgan should put up good numbers in this game in perfect dome conditions. Minnesota, however, is a run first team and the Gophers won’t have consistent success on the ground (4.5 yprp projected). I do expect Minnesota to pass more often than they normally do and to average 8.6 yppp, but only 58 total plays are projected for the Gophers, which should net them 367 yards based on the math.

The other reason there is value on Minnesota is their defense, which improved greatly after the chance of defensive coordinator. In 9 games with Rob Smith as the DC the Gophers allowed 31.8 points per game and 6.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. In the 3 games after Smith was fired, and the defense was simplified, Minnesota yielded just 16.3 points and 4.9 yppl to 3 bowl teams (Purdue, Northwestern, and Wisconsin) that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Minnesota’s defense wasn’t actually as bad during those first 9 games as their average rating, as that average was skewed by 3 really bad performances against Maryland (8.5 yppl allowed), Nebraska (9.3 yppl allowed), and Illinois (11.0 yppl allowed). Minnesota’s median defensive performance, which is more accurate for the purposes of predicting future performance, was 0.5 yppl better than average in those first 9 games with the other 6 games all being at least 0.3 yppl better than average (compensated for opposing offense). The simplified scheme allowed the athletic Gophers to play faster and limited the defensive breakdowns that led to those 3 really bad games. Minnesota’s two best defensive performances of the season were in those final 3 games, as the Gophers held a potent Purdue offense to just 10 points and 3.8 yppl in week 11 and limited Wisconsin to 5.6 yppl in a 37-15 win that secured this bowl game. Even if the defensive performance in those final 3 games was a nothing more than positive variance and had nothing to do with the chance in scheme, the median defensive rating for all 12 games was still 0.5 yppl better than average, which is 0.5 yppl better than Minnesota’s season rating of average (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl), which was skewed by those 3 horrendous performances. I have no doubt that Minnesota’s defense is much better than their season rating, even without top-tackler Cashman. Most important for this game is Minnesota’s median run defense, which was 0.7 yards per rushing play better than average. In fact, Minnesota held opponents to 0.7 yprp or more below their offensive run rating (adjusted for game site) in 8 of their 12 games, so they should perform pretty well against Georgia Tech. I made a 0.4 yprp adjustment for Cashman being out and project 5.3 yprp for Georgia Tech in this game and 5.6 yards per play for the Yellow Jackets.

Both teams are projected to combine for 5.96 yards per play, which is a bit higher than the national average of 5.74 yppl (my stats exclude kneel downs and spikes). However, both teams play at a very slow pace and only 121.3 plays and 723 total yards are projected for this game, which is well below the national average for total yards in a game (yet the total is higher than average). I actually expect more yards than the math projects because this game is being played in perfect dome conditions, which will help the passing numbers. I add that adjustment to the predicted math model score and don’t adjust the projected yardage, so expect more yards than the math model projects. By the way, domes add more to passing, which obviously helps Minnesota more than it would Georgia Tech’s run-heavy option attack. The math still projects just 53 total points even with adding a few points for playing this game in a dome. The math also favors Minnesota by 2 ½ points in this game (before adjusting for suspensions, which are unknown at this time). As mentioned earlier, I don’t expect the Minnesota suspensions to be worth more than 2 points so there is still plenty of value on the Gophers here.

I’ll go Under 59 points or more in a 1-Star Best Bet and I’ll take Minnesota in a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Minnesota
  • Georgia Tech
MINN
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.1 30.7
  • Run Yards 166.5 173.3
  • YPRP 4.8 6.0




Pass





  • Pass Comp 15.3 21.7
  • Pass Att 27.7 33.0
  • Comp % 55.1% 65.7%
  • Pass Yards 209.9 224.5
  • Sacks 2.2 1.8
  • Sack Yards 13.0 10.8
  • Sack % 7.3% 5.3%
  • Pass Plays 29.8 34.8
  • Net Pass Yards 196.9 213.8
  • YPPP 6.6 6.1

Total

  • Total Plays 66.9 65.5
  • Total Yards 376.4 397.8
  • YPPL 5.6 6.1

TO


  • Int 1.2 0.9
  • Int % 4.2% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 0.9 0.8
  • Turnovers 2.1 1.7
 
  • Points 28.5 27.9
Share This