Game Analysis
OREGON (-23.5) 34 Michigan State 14
Michigan State is coming off a 7-38 loss to Ohio State but I think they’ll be more competitive in this game. The Spartans have been significantly better than average from the line of scrimmage in 4 games against FBS teams, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average on offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and yielding just 5.3 yppl on defense to a slate of opposing offenses that would averaging 6.0 yppl against an average FBS defense.
Oregon is an elite team but my math favors the Ducks by just 20.4 points in this game.
Michigan State would be a Lean at +24 or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.0
35.0
-
Run Yards
134.5
160.3
-
YPRP
4.6
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.0
18.5
-
Pass Att
30.8
28.5
-
Comp %
55.3%
64.9%
-
Pass Yards
230.3
206.0
-
Sacks
2.0
3.0
-
Sack Yards
11.3
16.8
-
Sack %
6.1%
9.5%
-
Pass Plays
32.8
31.5
-
Net Pass Yards
219.0
189.3
-
YPPP
6.7
6.0
Total
-
Total Plays
61.8
66.5
-
Total Yards
353.5
349.5
-
YPPL
5.7
5.3
TO
-
Int
2.3
1.0
-
Int %
7.3%
3.5%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.3
-
Turnovers
3.3
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.3
23.8
-
Run Yards
169.0
130.8
-
YPRP
5.4
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
28.3
16.3
-
Pass Att
34.8
31.5
-
Comp %
81.3%
51.6%
-
Pass Yards
301.0
157.0
-
Sacks
1.8
2.8
-
Sack Yards
13.3
12.8
-
Sack %
4.8%
8.0%
-
Pass Plays
36.5
34.3
-
Net Pass Yards
287.8
144.3
-
YPPP
7.9
4.2
Total
-
Total Plays
67.8
58.0
-
Total Yards
456.8
275.0
-
YPPL
6.7
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.0
-
Int %
0.7%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.0
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/30/24 Florida Atl. |
16-10 |
-12.5
L
|
36/40 |
183/162 |
5.1/4.1 |
1/0 |
10/12 |
24/25 |
109/87 |
2/2 |
1/7 |
4.4/2.7 |
292/249 |
4.8/3.5 |
| 09/07/24 @ Maryland |
27-24 |
+9.0
W
|
28/30 |
139/95 |
5.0/3.2 |
0/0 |
24/25 |
39/33 |
347/244 |
3/1 |
2/1 |
8.5/7.2 |
486/339 |
7.0/5.3 |
| 09/14/24 Prairie View A&M |
40-0 |
0.0
W
|
34/24 |
188/39 |
5.5/1.6 |
0/0 |
20/9 |
29/17 |
270/101 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
9.3/5.1 |
458/140 |
7.3/3.2 |
| 09/21/24 @ Boston College |
19-23 |
+6.5
W
|
32/35 |
139/190 |
4.3/5.4 |
1/1 |
17/10 |
35/16 |
229/111 |
3/0 |
1/4 |
6.4/5.6 |
368/301 |
5.4/5.5 |
| 09/28/24 Ohio St. |
7-38 |
+23.5
L
|
20/35 |
77/194 |
3.9/5.5 |
2/0 |
17/27 |
25/40 |
191/315 |
1/1 |
4/0 |
6.6/7.9 |
268/509 |
5.5/6.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/31/24 Idaho |
24-14 |
0.0
W
|
31/16 |
133/74 |
4.3/4.6 |
1/0 |
41/11 |
49/27 |
359/142 |
0/2 |
3/4 |
6.9/4.6 |
492/216 |
5.9/4.6 |
| 09/07/24 Boise St. |
37-34 |
-20.5
L
|
31/32 |
142/222 |
4.6/6.9 |
2/0 |
18/17 |
21/40 |
206/147 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
8.2/3.6 |
348/369 |
6.2/5.1 |
| 09/14/24 @ Oregon St. |
49-14 |
-17.0
W
|
29/28 |
245/141 |
8.4/5.0 |
0/0 |
23/23 |
27/35 |
306/175 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
11.3/4.7 |
551/316 |
9.8/4.9 |
| 09/28/24 @ UCLA |
34-13 |
-25.5
L
|
34/19 |
156/86 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/0 |
31/14 |
42/24 |
280/113 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
6.7/4.0 |
436/199 |
5.7/4.2 |
Michigan St.
@ 
Oregon