Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (48) – Oregon (-2)  21   Michigan State  19

Michigan State games averaged a total of just 37.8 points this season and the Spartans have gone under the total in each of their last 7 games with an average of just 28.6 total points. I see that under trend continuing even with Michigan State’s star cornerback Justin Layne skipping this game. The offense went from decent to worse for Michigan State when they started losing key receivers. Cody White missed four games starting in week 6 and star receiver Felton Davis III was injured early in week 8 after averaging 79 yards per game and 7.9 yards per target in the team’s first 6 games. The passing numbers really dropped off when White got hurt and I thought they’d improve when he came back in week 10, but White got a lot more attention from opposing defenses with Davis out of the lineup and the pass attack continued to struggle – regardless of whether it was starter Brian Lewerke or Rocky Lombardi throwing the passes (Lewerke’s compensated numbers since week 6 are the same as Lombardi’s compensated numbers). White averaged 11.5 yards per target when Davis was getting the double-teams those first 4 games but he averaged only 4.9 yards per target in the 4 games since his return to the lineup now that he’s the marked man. Michigan State’s top pass-catcher became #3 receiver Darrell Stewart, who averages just 4.8 YPT for the season. Michigan State’s receivers, without Davis, are simply terrible and Spartans have averaged just 4.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average team) since Davis was injured, including just 3.3 yppp on Lewerke’s 77 pass plays – so don’t expect his return to improve the pass attack. I actually feel there was some negative variance involved in those horrible passing numbers (and some bad weather) and I have the Spartans’ pass attack rated at 1.2 yards per pass play worse than average rather than the -1.7 yppp they’ve actually been without Davis. Michigan State’s rushing attack is 0.6 yards per rushing play worse than average and Oregon defends the run well (0.5 yprp better than average) so the Spartans can’t rely on their rushing game to make up for their anemic aerial attack. Overall Oregon is 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively and I project just 4.3 yprp, 4.9 yppp and only 334 yards at 4.6 yards per play for the Spartans in this game.

Thankfully for Michigan State, their defense is good enough to keep them in this game. The Spartans allowed just 18 points per game and only 4.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive unit. The defense got even better over the final 4 games after last year’s top cornerback Josiah Scott became healthy enough to play after missing the first 8 games. Scott had two interceptions and 5 total passes defended in just 4 games and he teamed with 2^nd team All-Big 10 CB Justin Layne to completely shut down opposing wide receivers. Losing Layne to selfish behavior is unfortunate but Scott is just as good and he only played in 4 of Michigan State’s games, so the overall adjustment to the season stats for losing Layne isn’t that drastic (just 0.24 yppp higher based on my algorithm). Michigan State was 1.2 yppp better than average during the regular season and they’ll still be very good with Scott neutralizing Oregon’s star receiver Dillon Mitchell (1114 yards and 9.4 yards per target). Oregon’s other 3 wide receivers combined for just 776 yards and 6.4 yards per target so you only need one elite corner to defend the Ducks’ receivers. Michigan State also has the #2 rated run defense in the nation (behind Clemson), allowing just 3.7 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine for 5.5 yprp against an average team). Oregon’s offense isn’t nearly as good as their reputation, as Ducks are just 0.4 yards per play better than average (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and I project only 335 yards at 4.8 yppl for Oregon in this game even with the Ducks Justin Herbert projected to throw the ball more often than normal.

I expect both teams to struggle to move the ball in this game and playing on natural grass with some wind expected (13 mph with gusts into the mid-20s) should make it even tougher to consistently move the chains. Both teams played most of their games on artificial surfaces so playing on grass, with some wind, should lead to lower scoring than the math model would project without a surface/weather adjustment. There isn’t quite enough value to play the under as a Best Bet but I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 47 points or higher and I have no opinion on the side (the math leans with Oregon but Michigan State applies to a 46-11-1 ATS bowl situation that plays on elite defensive teams as underdogs).