Michigan St. @

Ohio St.

Sat, Nov 20
ABC
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 339
Odds: Ohio St. -19, Total: 69

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *OHIO STATE (-19)  50   Michigan State  23

Many fans are surprised that #7 Michigan State is a 19-point underdog in this game. I’m surprised that it’s not more than that. The Spartans have outgained their opponents by an average of just 4 yards per game (449 on offense and allowing 445 yards per game), although they are certainly more efficient (6.9 yppl to 5.4 yppl allowed), which is why they’re 6.4 points per game better than average from the line of scrimmage. From a compensated yards per play perspective the Spartans have been a very good 1.1 yppl better than average offensively thanks to a lot of big plays while their defense has been only 0.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for quarterbacks faced. Michigan State faced Johnson for Northwestern (1.0 yppp worse than the team), faced Tuttle for Indiana (2.1 yppp worse than starter Penix), and faced King for Miami (1.0 yppp worse than the team rating). The Spartans have managed to allow only 22.5 points per game on the 445 yards they’re allowing because they’ve allowed just 4.2 points per redzone opportunity, which is really low given the overall level of their defense (they should be at 4.7 PPRZ). Ohio State averages 5.4 points per redzone opportunity and should be able to score in those situations more than Michigan State’s other opponents have.

The Buckeyes have the nation’s best offense, averaging 8.2 yards per play with the starters in the game (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Michigan State is allowing opponents to run 82 plays per game and I project 79 plays for 646 total yards for the Buckeyes in this game while being right on their 8.2 yppl season average against a Michigan State defense that rates is about the same as the collective level of the teams that Ohio State has faced this season.

Michigan State’s offense (+1.1 yppl) does have a bit of an advantage over an Ohio State defense that’s been 0.9 yppl better than average since changing their defensive coordinator after their week 2 loss to Oregon and the Buckeyes haven’t given up a lot of big plays that Michigan State’s offense depends on. I project a modest 357 yards at 5.7 yppl for Michigan State in this game, which won’t be nearly enough to keep up with what Ohio State’s potent attack racks up.

Michigan State was lucky to beat Michigan (outgained by 155 yards) and have been fortunate to face the worst of quarterbacks in 3 of their games. The Spartans have also experienced positive variance in redzone scoring defense, but their day of reckoning is here. Ohio State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -20 or less (Strong Opinion at -20.5).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Michigan St.
  • Ohio St.
MSU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 34.9 31.2
  • Run Yards 213.3 138.9
  • YPRP 6.1 4.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.9 30.3
  • Pass Att 28.2 47.7
  • Comp % 63.5% 63.5%
  • Pass Yards 247.5 327.2
  • Sacks 1.7 3.2
  • Sack Yards 12.3 21.5
  • Sack % 5.7% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 29.9 50.9
  • Net Pass Yards 235.2 305.7
  • YPPP 7.9 6.0

Total

  • Total Plays 64.8 82.1
  • Total Yards 448.5 444.6
  • YPPL 6.9 5.4

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.8
  • Int % 2.8% 1.7%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.6
 
  • Points 34.6 22.5
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