Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Michigan State (+4.5)  24   MINNESOTA  20

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith struggled in his first season at Oregon State in 2018 (2-10 straight up and 4-7-1 ATS) before improving the Beavers into a top-25 team by 2022 (#11 final ranking). His Oregon State team started their improvement in his second season and went 36-21-1 ATS from season two on with the Beavers. Last season was Smith’s first at Michigan State and the Spartans went just 5-7 and 4-8 ATS. However, MSU is showing signs of improvement, as they’ve covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Smith’s teams are 17-6 ATS as a road underdog since his second season at Oregon State and I rate the Spartans as clearly better than a Minnesota team that is 0-4 ATS laying points this year.

Minnesota beat us a couple of weeks ago with a surprising upset of Nebraska, but that is the only game against an FBS opponent in which the Gophers covered the spread all season (1-6 ATS). Minnesota has been 0.9 yards per play worse than average on offense against FBS opponents (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack) and the Gophers have been just 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl).

Minnesota’s defense does have a 0.5 yppl advantage over a Michigan State offense that’s been 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) but the Gophers’ offense (-0.9 yppl) is 0.6 yppl worse than Michigan State defense (0.3 yppl worse than average, adjusted for facing Western Michigan with Jones at QB, who is terrible).

I project the total yards in this game to be about even (314 yards at 5.1 yppl for MSU and 310 yards at 5.2 yppl for Minnesota) but Michigan State is better in special teams and is projected to have a 0.8 points edge in turnovers. Michigan State is better than what they’ve shown so far and I’ll call for the Spartans to get their first conference win.

Michigan State is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more and 1-Star at +3 to -115 odds.