(24) Michigan St. @

Indiana

Sat, Sep 22
BTN
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 317
Odds: Indiana +5.5, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Michigan State (-5.5)  25   INDIANA  22

The absence of 1st-Team All-Big 10 CB Josiah Scott has been felt by a Michigan State defense that has allowed 64% completions and 7.0 yards per play to Utah State and Arizona State. The Spartans’ run defense has been great (2.6 yards per rushing play allowed) but opponents have simply decided to throw the ball instead of trying to run, as an average of 48 pass plays have been run against Michigan State in their first two games. Indiana isn’t against throwing the ball and the Hoosiers’ two quarterbacks have combined for 75% completions in their first three games. Most of those completions are short passes (8.9 yards per completion) but they serve to move the chains, which the Hoosiers should have success doing against a vulnerable Spartans’ secondary.

Michigan State has been good offensively thus far, averaging 6.2 yppl against two solid defensive teams, but they’ll be tested by an Indiana defense that was 0.7 yards per play better than average last season and has played at that same level through 3 games this season while allowing just 18 points per game. My ratings favor Michigan State by just 3 ½ points and Sparty has consistently failed as a road favorite, as their loss at ASU dropped them to 4-6 straight up and 1-9 ATS in that role since 2015. I’ll lean slightly with Indiana and hope they win straight up (I have a Best Bet on Indiana over 5.5 wins for the season).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Michigan St.
  • Indiana
MSU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 29.5 22.5
  • Run Yards 120.0 44.0
  • YPRP 4.7 2.6




Pass





  • Pass Comp 25.0 29.5
  • Pass Att 36.0 46.0
  • Comp % 69.4% 64.1%
  • Pass Yards 300.5 349.5
  • Sacks 2.5 2.0
  • Sack Yards 19.0 15.0
  • Sack % 6.5% 4.2%
  • Pass Plays 38.5 48.0
  • Net Pass Yards 281.5 334.5
  • YPPP 7.3 7.0

Total

  • Total Plays 68.0 70.5
  • Total Yards 420.5 393.5
  • YPPL 6.2 5.6

TO


  • Int 1.0 1.5
  • Int % 2.8% 3.3%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.5 1.5
 
  • Points 25.5 23.5
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