Game Analysis
PENN STATE (-7.5) 27 Michigan 15
Michigan is just 1-19 straight up and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against ranked teams, including their 14-35 loss at Wisconsin that wasn’t even as close as that score indicates. The Wolverines are a very good defensive team, as usual, rating at 1.3 yards per play better than average on that side of the ball (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) but the offense is a bit below average on an national scale.
Penn State, meanwhile, has been 0.9 yppl better than average offensively (6.6 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and an even better 1.6 yppl better than average on defense (4.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). That unit has allowed just 8.4 points per game in 5 games against FBS teams (and 7 points against FCS team Idaho).
It may be a stretch that my model projects 16 points for Michigan given that Penn State hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in any game this season, but Penn State’s offense has scored just 17 points in each game against better than average defensive teams (Pitt and Iowa) while enhancing their offensive numbers by dominating weaker teams. Overall, I think the model is right in siding with Penn State minus the points but it wouldn’t shock me if this game were an ugly 17-10 affair.
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.8
32.7
-
Run Yards
192.4
154.7
-
YPRP
5.1
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.2
12.4
-
Pass Att
28.2
24.1
-
Comp %
61.1%
51.5%
-
Pass Yards
223.0
146.4
-
Sacks
1.9
2.5
-
Sack Yards
11.4
17.4
-
Sack %
6.2%
9.2%
-
Pass Plays
30.0
26.5
-
Net Pass Yards
211.6
129.0
-
YPPP
7.0
4.9
Total
-
Total Plays
69.8
59.2
-
Total Yards
415.4
301.1
-
YPPL
5.9
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.9
-
Int %
2.6%
3.6%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.6
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.7
36.6
-
Run Yards
174.0
147.8
-
YPRP
5.5
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.6
16.8
-
Pass Att
29.1
32.1
-
Comp %
56.9%
52.4%
-
Pass Yards
215.6
184.2
-
Sacks
2.5
3.9
-
Sack Yards
15.7
24.0
-
Sack %
7.8%
10.8%
-
Pass Plays
31.6
36.0
-
Net Pass Yards
199.9
160.3
-
YPPP
6.3
4.5
Total
-
Total Plays
66.3
72.6
-
Total Yards
389.6
332.1
-
YPPL
5.9
4.6
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.0
-
Int %
2.3%
3.0%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.7
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 Maryland |
42-21 |
-17.5
W
|
40/34 |
171/159 |
4.3/4.7 |
0/0 |
20/7 |
28/13 |
294/62 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
10.5/4.1 |
465/221 |
6.8/4.5 |
| 10/13/18 Wisconsin |
38-13 |
-8.0
W
|
44/27 |
344/196 |
7.8/7.3 |
0/0 |
14/7 |
21/20 |
105/89 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
4.4/4.0 |
449/285 |
6.6/5.8 |
| 10/20/18 @ Michigan St. |
21-7 |
-7.0
W
|
49/19 |
201/38 |
4.1/2.0 |
2/1 |
14/7 |
25/28 |
200/64 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
7.4/2.1 |
401/102 |
5.3/2.0 |
| 11/03/18 Penn St. |
42-7 |
-10.0
W
|
50/25 |
266/106 |
5.3/4.2 |
0/1 |
11/8 |
17/17 |
139/82 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
7.7/3.7 |
405/188 |
6.0/4.0 |
| 11/10/18 @ Rutgers |
42-7 |
-37.5
L
|
37/33 |
199/199 |
5.4/6.0 |
0/1 |
18/9 |
27/20 |
260/59 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
9.6/3.0 |
459/258 |
7.2/4.9 |
| 11/17/18 Indiana |
31-20 |
-28.5
L
|
48/38 |
260/207 |
5.4/5.4 |
0/1 |
16/16 |
28/35 |
250/178 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
8.9/4.8 |
510/385 |
6.7/5.1 |
| 11/24/18 @ Ohio St. |
39-62 |
-4.5
L
|
37/35 |
177/255 |
4.8/7.3 |
0/1 |
23/19 |
38/30 |
224/318 |
2/0 |
3/0 |
5.5/10.6 |
401/573 |
5.1/8.8 |
| 12/29/18 Florida |
15-41 |
-6.0
L
|
24/36 |
107/275 |
4.5/7.6 |
0/0 |
23/14 |
37/24 |
217/153 |
2/0 |
6/3 |
5.0/5.7 |
324/428 |
4.8/6.8 |
| 08/31/19 Middle Tenn St |
40-21 |
-34.5
L
|
43/26 |
254/92 |
5.9/3.5 |
2/1 |
19/26 |
32/41 |
201/222 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
5.9/5.2 |
455/314 |
5.9/4.6 |
| 09/07/19 Army |
24-21 |
-22.0
L
|
41/60 |
138/215 |
3.4/3.6 |
3/2 |
19/2 |
29/4 |
177/33 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
5.4/6.6 |
315/248 |
4.3/3.8 |
| 09/21/19 @ Wisconsin |
14-35 |
+3.5
L
|
17/53 |
54/377 |
3.2/7.1 |
2/0 |
18/13 |
42/16 |
256/112 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
5.8/6.2 |
310/489 |
5.1/6.9 |
| 09/28/19 Rutgers |
52-0 |
-28.0
W
|
40/26 |
144/62 |
3.6/2.4 |
0/1 |
20/17 |
27/24 |
318/92 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
11.4/3.5 |
462/154 |
6.8/3.0 |
| 10/05/19 Iowa |
10-3 |
-4.5
W
|
30/22 |
139/66 |
4.6/3.0 |
0/1 |
14/23 |
26/42 |
132/195 |
1/3 |
2/8 |
4.7/3.9 |
271/261 |
4.7/3.6 |
| 10/12/19 @ Illinois |
42-25 |
-24.0
L
|
46/38 |
303/105 |
6.6/2.8 |
2/2 |
11/18 |
22/29 |
194/173 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
8.8/5.1 |
497/278 |
7.3/3.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/13/18 Michigan St. |
17-21 |
-13.0
L
|
30/33 |
214/138 |
7.1/4.2 |
1/0 |
19/25 |
32/53 |
185/281 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.6/5.0 |
399/419 |
6.3/4.7 |
| 10/20/18 @ Indiana |
33-28 |
-14.5
L
|
33/39 |
190/268 |
5.8/6.9 |
1/2 |
20/35 |
37/55 |
227/286 |
1/1 |
3/6 |
5.7/4.7 |
417/554 |
5.7/5.5 |
| 10/27/18 Iowa |
30-24 |
-6.5
L
|
31/33 |
158/161 |
5.1/4.9 |
1/0 |
13/18 |
29/49 |
179/184 |
1/2 |
3/3 |
5.6/3.5 |
337/345 |
5.3/4.1 |
| 11/03/18 @ Michigan |
7-42 |
+10.0
L
|
25/50 |
106/266 |
4.2/5.3 |
1/0 |
8/11 |
17/17 |
82/139 |
2/0 |
5/1 |
3.7/7.7 |
188/405 |
4.0/6.0 |
| 11/10/18 Wisconsin |
22-10 |
-8.5
W
|
42/32 |
223/255 |
5.3/8.0 |
2/2 |
19/9 |
25/20 |
133/20 |
0/2 |
3/5 |
4.8/0.8 |
356/275 |
5.1/4.8 |
| 11/17/18 @ Rutgers |
20-7 |
-28.0
L
|
37/51 |
146/220 |
3.9/4.3 |
1/1 |
17/5 |
37/16 |
183/16 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
4.9/0.8 |
329/236 |
4.4/3.3 |
| 11/24/18 Maryland |
38-3 |
-13.5
W
|
43/31 |
305/85 |
7.1/2.7 |
1/0 |
14/14 |
24/23 |
248/174 |
0/0 |
1/5 |
9.9/6.2 |
553/259 |
8.1/4.4 |
| 01/01/19 Kentucky |
24-27 |
-6.0
L
|
34/38 |
197/190 |
5.8/5.0 |
1/0 |
17/9 |
33/15 |
210/107 |
1/0 |
5/4 |
5.5/5.6 |
407/297 |
5.7/5.2 |
| 08/31/19 Idaho |
79-7 |
0.0
W
|
44/21 |
339/57 |
7.7/2.7 |
1/0 |
25/16 |
37/26 |
334/88 |
0/1 |
1/7 |
8.8/2.7 |
673/145 |
8.2/2.7 |
| 09/07/19 Buffalo |
45-13 |
-30.5
W
|
19/57 |
101/168 |
5.3/2.9 |
1/1 |
16/16 |
22/32 |
268/243 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
10.7/7.4 |
369/411 |
8.4/4.6 |
| 09/14/19 Pittsburgh |
17-10 |
-17.5
L
|
29/21 |
189/40 |
6.5/1.9 |
0/0 |
14/35 |
30/51 |
200/358 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
6.1/6.6 |
389/398 |
6.3/5.3 |
| 09/27/19 @ Maryland |
59-0 |
-6.5
W
|
40/30 |
201/90 |
5.0/3.0 |
0/1 |
32/11 |
39/24 |
478/45 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
12.3/1.6 |
679/135 |
8.6/2.3 |
| 10/05/19 Purdue |
35-7 |
-26.0
W
|
43/18 |
211/56 |
4.9/3.1 |
2/1 |
20/14 |
29/28 |
254/37 |
1/0 |
1/10 |
8.5/1.0 |
465/93 |
6.4/1.7 |
| 10/12/19 @ Iowa |
17-12 |
-3.5
W
|
48/28 |
204/87 |
4.3/3.1 |
0/1 |
12/25 |
24/43 |
104/269 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
3.9/6.0 |
308/356 |
4.1/4.9 |
