Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Michigan (-10)  28   Northwestern  12

This game being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago is likely to have more Michigan fans than Northwestern fans given the huge number of Michigan alumni living in Chicago and more interest by Wolverines fans in their football team – although I gave neither team a field advantage.

Michigan’s rushing attack has not fallen off much without leading rusher Justice Haynes, who had 857 rush yards at 7.1 ypr in the 8 games he played. Michigan has been 1.7 yards per rushing play better than average for the season (6.5 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and the Wolverines have been 1.6 yprp better than average in the two games Haynes has missed – averaging 6.2 yprp against teams (Washington and Purdue) that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team. Jordan Marshall has stepped into the lead back roll with 318 yards in his two starts and has averaged 6.6 ypr the last 3 games. I still docked Michigan 0.4 yprp for being without Haynes even though they’ve been just 0.1 yprp worse in those two games without him. Michigan’s offense has been 1.3 yards per play better than average this season and I rate them at +1.1 yppl without Haynes. That’s still a big advantage over a Northwestern defense that’s been just 0.4 yppl better than average.

Northwestern’s offense has mustered just 19.4 points per game and 5.1 yppl against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack and those averages drop to 16.1 ppg and 4.8 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) if you exclude their 42 points on 518 yards at 7.3 yppl against a horrible UL Monroe defense.

Michigan’s defense has been 1.4 yppl better than average and allowed an average of just 13.2 points to the 5 average or worse offensive teams that they’ve faced (New Mexico, C Mich, Wisconsin, MSU, and Purdue), who collectively rate the same as Northwestern’s offense (0.03 yppl better).

Double-digit winds are expected in Chicago on Saturday late morning/early afternoon, which would make passing more difficult. That would certainly favor a Michigan offense that is projected to average 6.2 yards per rushing play (NW projected to average just 4.4 yprp).

Michigan is a Strong Opinion at -10 -115 odds or better.