Game Analysis

Lean – Over (49.5) – Miami-Ohio (+2.5)  28   OHIO  28

This game is strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.

Ohio has a good offense that has averaged 6.6 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average FBS attack) while Miami-Ohio has an equally good defense that’s yielded just 5.1 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense. I project a modest 6.0 yppl for the Bobcats at home in this game.

Miami’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average team) but Ohio has given up 6.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team and I project 6.5 yppl for the Redhawks in this game.

Ohio runs a lot more plays than their opponents because their defense tends to either give up quick scores and force 3-and-outs and the math model projects the Bobcats to run significantly more plays from scrimmage, which evens out the yards per play differential that is in favor of Miami-Ohio.

The difference is Miami’s superior special teams against Ohio’s horrible special teams units.

I think the better play is the over, as I project 771 total yards in the still conditions expected in Athens tonight. That’s higher than the nation average yet the total is below the national average of 53 total points per game. I project 56 points in this game based on the projected statistics.