Game Analysis
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-7/-6.5) 24 Miami-Ohio 21
Miami has been an underrated team and the Redhawks match up pretty evenly with Northern Illinois tonight. The strength of NIU is their defense, which has been 0.7 yards per play better than average this season (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). However, Miami-Ohio is solid defensively too, rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on that side of the ball (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) and the Redhawks are the better offensive team.
Miami has been only 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) while Northern Illinois’ one-dimensional attack has averaged only 4.6 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl).
I was considering making Miami a play of some sort but injuries to two of their top three tacklers is a concern against a Northern Illinois team that lives or dies by the run (since they can’t throw it). I’ve adjusted for those injuries and my math model still favors Miami-Ohio to cover the number.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.9
37.6
-
Run Yards
153.2
162.4
-
YPRP
4.9
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.1
17.1
-
Pass Att
33.4
29.3
-
Comp %
60.2%
58.4%
-
Pass Yards
229.0
200.2
-
Sacks
1.5
2.5
-
Sack Yards
6.8
15.5
-
Sack %
4.3%
7.9%
-
Pass Plays
34.9
31.8
-
Net Pass Yards
222.2
184.7
-
YPPP
6.4
5.8
Total
-
Total Plays
67.8
69.4
-
Total Yards
382.2
362.6
-
YPPL
5.6
5.2
TO
-
Int
0.4
0.5
-
Int %
1.2%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.7
-
Turnovers
0.9
1.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
40.2
36.0
-
Run Yards
190.8
113.6
-
YPRP
5.3
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.3
20.3
-
Pass Att
28.3
35.4
-
Comp %
57.6%
57.3%
-
Pass Yards
138.8
245.6
-
Sacks
2.5
3.8
-
Sack Yards
21.8
24.3
-
Sack %
8.1%
9.7%
-
Pass Plays
30.8
39.2
-
Net Pass Yards
117.0
221.3
-
YPPP
3.8
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
71.0
75.2
-
Total Yards
329.6
359.2
-
YPPL
4.6
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.7
-
Int %
2.1%
2.0%
-
Fumbles
0.5
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.7
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 Marshall |
28-35 |
+2.0
L
|
25/36 |
101/198 |
4.0/5.5 |
0/0 |
25/24 |
46/37 |
350/260 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
7.4/6.7 |
451/458 |
6.3/6.1 |
| 09/08/18 Cincinnati |
0-21 |
-1.0
L
|
19/48 |
59/210 |
3.1/4.4 |
0/0 |
22/6 |
41/11 |
139/45 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
3.4/4.1 |
198/255 |
3.3/4.3 |
| 09/15/18 @ Minnesota |
3-26 |
+13.0
L
|
29/40 |
119/162 |
4.1/4.1 |
2/1 |
12/14 |
23/26 |
106/156 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
4.2/5.4 |
225/318 |
4.2/4.6 |
| 09/22/18 @ Bowling Green |
38-23 |
-5.0
W
|
51/29 |
337/107 |
6.6/3.7 |
0/1 |
10/30 |
15/49 |
119/203 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
7.9/3.8 |
456/310 |
6.9/3.7 |
| 09/29/18 Western Mich |
39-40 |
+1.5
W
|
27/36 |
62/123 |
2.3/3.4 |
0/2 |
22/27 |
32/42 |
284/432 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
8.6/10.0 |
346/555 |
5.8/7.0 |
| 10/06/18 @ Akron |
41-17 |
+5.0
W
|
38/25 |
208/78 |
5.5/3.1 |
1/2 |
24/19 |
33/35 |
214/183 |
1/3 |
0/3 |
6.5/4.8 |
422/261 |
5.9/4.1 |
| 10/13/18 Kent State |
31-6 |
-11.0
W
|
48/26 |
302/146 |
6.3/5.6 |
1/0 |
16/15 |
24/29 |
206/89 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
8.2/2.6 |
508/235 |
7.0/3.9 |
| 10/20/18 @ Army |
30-31 |
+6.5
W
|
26/73 |
82/350 |
3.2/4.8 |
0/0 |
30/0 |
53/2 |
324/0 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
6.0/0.0 |
406/350 |
5.1/4.7 |
| 10/30/18 @ Buffalo |
42-51 |
+7.0
L
|
35/34 |
158/173 |
4.5/5.1 |
1/0 |
20/20 |
35/35 |
293/339 |
0/0 |
6/3 |
7.1/8.9 |
451/512 |
5.9/7.1 |
| 11/07/18 Ohio |
30-28 |
+4.5
W
|
31/29 |
172/232 |
5.5/8.0 |
0/1 |
20/16 |
32/27 |
187/140 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
5.3/4.7 |
359/372 |
5.4/6.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 @ Iowa |
7-33 |
+10.5
L
|
31/46 |
149/216 |
4.8/4.7 |
1/0 |
15/13 |
26/25 |
67/139 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
2.2/5.3 |
216/355 |
3.5/4.9 |
| 09/08/18 Utah |
6-17 |
+11.0
T
|
39/31 |
176/118 |
4.5/3.8 |
1/2 |
18/20 |
33/31 |
74/239 |
1/0 |
3/7 |
2.1/6.3 |
250/357 |
3.3/5.2 |
| 09/15/18 Central Mich |
24-16 |
-14.0
L
|
46/43 |
227/185 |
4.9/4.3 |
0/1 |
11/18 |
18/33 |
96/134 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.1/3.7 |
323/319 |
5.0/4.0 |
| 09/22/18 @ Florida St. |
19-37 |
+10.0
L
|
16/54 |
37/160 |
2.3/3.0 |
0/3 |
20/23 |
41/31 |
189/335 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
4.2/10.2 |
226/495 |
3.7/5.7 |
| 09/29/18 @ Eastern Mich |
26-23 |
+3.5
W
|
60/29 |
246/94 |
4.1/3.2 |
1/1 |
20/17 |
35/40 |
121/163 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
3.5/3.8 |
367/257 |
3.9/3.6 |
| 10/06/18 @ Ball St. |
24-16 |
-3.0
W
|
40/38 |
253/148 |
6.3/3.9 |
0/1 |
18/32 |
29/56 |
117/245 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
3.7/4.2 |
370/393 |
5.1/4.1 |
| 10/13/18 Ohio |
24-21 |
-4.5
L
|
42/28 |
277/84 |
6.6/3.0 |
0/2 |
17/15 |
33/23 |
127/239 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
3.6/8.9 |
404/323 |
5.2/5.9 |
| 10/27/18 @ BYU |
7-6 |
+7.0
W
|
30/32 |
113/116 |
3.8/3.6 |
0/0 |
10/18 |
21/30 |
104/185 |
0/1 |
2/5 |
4.5/5.3 |
217/301 |
4.1/4.5 |
| 11/01/18 @ Akron |
36-26 |
-6.0
W
|
55/22 |
342/62 |
6.2/2.8 |
1/0 |
21/21 |
28/38 |
154/299 |
0/2 |
4/6 |
4.8/6.8 |
496/361 |
5.7/5.5 |
| 11/07/18 Toledo |
38-15 |
-3.5
W
|
43/37 |
306/196 |
7.1/5.3 |
1/0 |
13/26 |
19/47 |
121/235 |
1/0 |
1/5 |
6.1/4.5 |
427/431 |
6.8/4.8 |
Miami Ohio
@ 
Northern Ill