Miami Ohio @

Northern Ill

Wed, Nov 14
ESPNU
5:00 PM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 305
Odds: Northern Ill -7, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-7/-6.5)  24  Miami-Ohio  21

Miami has been an underrated team and the Redhawks match up pretty evenly with Northern Illinois tonight. The strength of NIU is their defense, which has been 0.7 yards per play better than average this season (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). However, Miami-Ohio is solid defensively too, rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on that side of the ball (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) and the Redhawks are the better offensive team.

Miami has been only 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) while Northern Illinois’ one-dimensional attack has averaged only 4.6 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl).

I was considering making Miami a play of some sort but injuries to two of their top three tacklers is a concern against a Northern Illinois team that lives or dies by the run (since they can’t throw it). I’ve adjusted for those injuries and my math model still favors Miami-Ohio to cover the number.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Miami Ohio
  • Northern Ill
MIO
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.9 37.6
  • Run Yards 153.2 162.4
  • YPRP 4.9 4.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 20.1 17.1
  • Pass Att 33.4 29.3
  • Comp % 60.2% 58.4%
  • Pass Yards 229.0 200.2
  • Sacks 1.5 2.5
  • Sack Yards 6.8 15.5
  • Sack % 4.3% 7.9%
  • Pass Plays 34.9 31.8
  • Net Pass Yards 222.2 184.7
  • YPPP 6.4 5.8

Total

  • Total Plays 67.8 69.4
  • Total Yards 382.2 362.6
  • YPPL 5.6 5.2

TO


  • Int 0.4 0.5
  • Int % 1.2% 1.7%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.9 1.2
 
  • Points 28.2 27.8
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