Game Analysis

Miami-Ohio (-2.5)  23   Colorado State  22

The Miami-Ohio defense allowed just 18.9 points per game and only 4.8 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense. The Redhawks will be without star CB Raion Strader, who transferred to Auburn, and backup corners Yharbrough and Hardrick have also left the team. Strader had 19 passes defended and he’s worth 1.5 points by himself. Overall, the cluster losses at the cornerback position are worth 2.1 points but it could be more given the inexperienced backups that will probably be forced to play.

Colorado State’s defense was better than expected this season, as the Rams allowed just 24.3 points per game and 5.8 yppl (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense). The Rams will be without leading tackler LB Buom Jock, who has entered the transfer portal and is not on the depth chart. However, starting DE Mukendi Wa-Kalonji is on the depth chart despite stating his intentions to enter the portal, and I’ll assume he’ll play. I’ll also assume the DT Cam Bariteau will be back on the field after missing the season final a few weeks ago. The absence of Jock and rotational DL Gatkuoth (4 TFL) is worth a point.

The Colorado State offense averaged 6.0 yppl, against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl, but they’ll be without 3 of their 4 best receivers, as star Tory Horton is still injured while Jamari Person and Caleb Goodie have entered the transfer portal and are not on the depth chart. Goodie is big loss out of the two transfers, as he averaged 20.8 yards per reception 10.9 yards per target while the most experienced receiver available, Armani Winfield, averages just 5.5 YPT despite leading the team in targets with 61. Dane Olson has shown that he might be able to fill in nicely as the deep threat in place of Goodie, as he’s averaged 20.8 yards per catch and 15.0 YPT on his 15 targets. In all, the rest of the receiving group combined for 7.6 YPT while the departed trio combined for 8.6 YPT. I valued the missing receivers at 1.2 points.

Miami-Ohio only scored 22.6 points per game, but the Redhawks’ big play offense averaged 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). Miami will be without their top two wide receivers Tracy and Virgil and starting LT Jados. Tracy and Virgil combined for 1634 yards and 9.5 yards per target, which is significantly better than the 7.9 YPT averaged by the other 3 wide receivers and it also means that at least one inexperienced receiver is likely to see the field. Overall, I rate the Miami offense at 0.3 yppl worse than average with current personnel (about a 3 point adjustment).

After all the adjustments I get Miami-Ohio by 1.7 points with a total of 45.1 points (with +1.2 for the good weather expected in Tucson). The Redhawks also apply to a negative 12-33-1 ATS bowl situation that applies to teams that lost in the conference championship game.