Game Analysis

Miami-Ohio (-2.5)  22   BUFFALO  19

Miami-Ohio’s quarterback Dequan Finn left the team before last week’s game to focus his efforts on preparing for the NFL draft combine even though he’s a mediocre college quarterback that only a stupid NFL GM would draft. Good luck with that Dequan.

Anyway, Finn is better than new quarterback Henry Hesson, who struggled last week (2.7 yards per pass play against a very good Toledo defense) but was pretty good against two bad defensive teams earlier in the season (342 yards on 38 pass plays against UNLV and Lindenwood). I made a 4.3 points adjustment for the Redhawks’ quarterback change but I still get Miami by 3.4 points against a horrible Buffalo team that’s not bad defensively but rates at 1.3 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.6 yppl to an average FBS offense).

I have Miami-Ohio’s offense at -1.1 yppl with Hesson at quarterback and the Redhawks’ defense has been 0.3 yppl better than an average FBS defense this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team).