Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Miami-Florida (-23)  41   TEMPLE  10

The line on this game opened at 25.5 points and has come down due to the bad weather expected in Philly on Saturday (15 mph winds and likely rain). However, wind and rain only tend to affect passing and not being able to throw as effectively is likely to affect Temple’s pass-heavy attack (67% pass play in 2 games vs FBS opponents) than it will the more balanced Miami offense (I expect 55% runs given the weather). Miami is projected to average 5.8 yards per rushing play while Temple’s horrible rush attack is projected to average only 3.2 yprp. The Owls would also be expected to have trouble throwing the ball even if the conditions were perfect, as E.J. Warner obviously misses last year’s top receiver Jose Barbon and he’s connected on just 52.5% of his 118 pass attempts thus far (50% vs 2 FBS foes). I expect Warner to improve some, but the Temple aerial attack is clearly still below average and Miami’s pass defense has been really good in limiting Miami-Ohio’s Brett Gabbert and Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman to just 6.1 yards per pass play. Gabbert is an above average quarterback and averaged 10.1 yppp against UMass and Cincy while A&M averaged 9.4 yppp in their other two games.

Miami has been great in all 3 of their games while Temple has been well below average offensively (-1.1 yppl) and defensively (+0.6 yppl) so far this season while losing by 29 points as an 8.5-point underdog to the only decent team they faced (Rutgers, who is a bit below average). The Owls’ other game against an FBS team was a 3-point win over a horrible Akron team as a 10-point favorite.

Miami is a 1-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less (Strong Opinion up to -25).