Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Miami-Florida (-10)  32   SMU  13

Last week in my 2-Star Best Bet on Wake Forest over SMU, I wrote about the Mustangs’ overrated offense and how it could struggle against a good Demon Deacons’ defense. That was certainly the case as SMU managed just 240 yards at 3.6 yppl in a 12-13 loss. The Mustangs could be facing a similar fate offensively against an elite Miami-Florida stop unit that’s yielded just 285 yards per game at 4.5 yppl against FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team. SMU would average 6.1 yppl against an average FBS defense and my math is projecting just 241 yards at 4.3 yppl for the Mustangs in this game. Miami has only allowed 16.0 points per game to that schedule of mostly good offensive teams that are better collectively than SMU’s offense – so projecting that defense to allow just 13 points in this game is certainly reasonable.

SMU is also not as good defensively this season as expected, as they’ve allowed 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing Syracuse with Collins at QB and facing Clemson’s backup QB). The Mustangs have a very good run defense but they’ve been 0.2 yards per pass play worse than average defending the pass and the only two better than average quarterbacks that they’ve faced this season (Robertson from Baylor and Hoover from TCU) both lit it up with Robertson totaling 432 yards on 51 pass plays (8.5 yppp) and Hoover gaining 371 yards on 42 pass plays (8.8 yppp). Miami’s Carson Beck has completed 73.3% of his passes and has been 1.9 yppp better than an average FBS quarterback and he’s projected to average 8.0 yppp in this game. It could be more given how well Baylor and TCU threw against the SMU defense. Baylor scored 38 points in regulation and Baylor scored 35 points against the Mustangs and Miami is just as good offensively as those two teams.

Miami is a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, 1-Star up to -12 and a Strong Opinion to -13 points.