Game Analysis

Lean – Pittsburgh Team Total Under (21.5 -130)

Miami-Florida (-6.5/-7)  27   PITTSBURGH  17

Pittsburgh has averaged 35.3 points in 10 games against FBS opponents this season despite being a mediocre offensive team that is worse since Mason Heintschel took over quarterbacking duties in place of Eli Holstein. Heintschel has averaged a modest 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback and the Panthers’ rushing attack has been mostly bad this season and is still 0.1 yards per rushing play worse than average (5.0 yprp against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) despite averaging 8.1 yprp last week against a horrible Georgia Tech run defense. Overall, Pitt has been 0.1 yards per play worse than average in Heintschel’s 7 starts (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) and yet they’ve managed to score 36.7 points per game. That is a mirage.

Pitt has scored more points than their mediocre offense should produce because they are #3 in the nation in offensive starting field position and because they have benefited from 4 defensive touchdowns. Pitt has turned that good field position into 5.2 redzone chances per game, which is well above average, but they aren’t likely to get more than 2 or 3 redzone chances in this game. Miami has only allowed 2.1 redzone opportunities per game and Pitt isn’t likely to benefit from great field position like they normally do given that Miami ranks #3 in the nation in defensive average starting field position. Without the good field position it’s not likely that the Panthers will be able to sustain long drives, as they rank #124 in the nation in 3^rd-down success rate while Miami’s defense is #8 in 3^rd-down defense.

Miami has the 6^th best defense in the nation in terms of compensated yards per play allowed (4.5 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense), which ranks just behind Notre Dame. Pitt just played that Notre Dame defense and the offense managed just 219 total yards and only 3 points before scoring a TD on the final play of game in a 15-37 loss (they got their other TD on an interception return). The issue today is the absence of likely 1^st-Team All-American DB Keionte Scott, who also missed last week’s game. Scott is worth 1.7 points based on my metrics, but it could be more.

I see a similar result for Pitt’s mediocre offense in this game, as my math projects just 282 total yards at 4.5 yppl and 17.4 points for the Panthers against a dominating Miami defense that’s yielded an average of just 15.7 points per game against teams that collectively rate at 0.5 yppl better than Pitt’s offense.

My math model favors Miami by 9.3 points with just 44.1 total points (with a boost for good weather included), with value on the Hurricanes and the Under. I was going to play the Pitt Team Total Under if Keionte Scott was listed as probable but he’s out and he’s a difference maker. I still see some value there but not enough to make it a play.

Lean on the Pittsburgh Team Total Under 21.5 is a Strong Opinion at -130 odds or better.