Game Analysis
Miami-Florida (-10.5) 31 CALIFORNIA 20
Unbeaten Miami had a scare last week against Virginia Tech so they should be focused for this one. The math favors the Hurricanes by 13 points, but this game is starting at 10:30 pm Miami time and it will be interesting to see how that affects them.
Cal’s defense has led the nation is turnovers since the beginning of last season and the Bears have 10 interceptions in 4 games. A lot of that is just random and I project just 1 interception for Cam Ward in this game – although he was intercepted 3 times by Cal the last two years while playing at Washington State.
Cal is going to need to force more than 1 turnover if they hope to stay close because I don’t have a lot of faith in their offense, which has averaged just 5.4 yards per play so far this season while facing a schedule of teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense. Miami has a good defense that’s allowed just 15 points per game so the Bears will have to play at the high level they played at the second half of last season after Mendoza took over at quarterback.
Cal has a strong history as an underdog under coach Justin Wilcox and the Bears are 22-10-1 ATS getting more than 4 points, but I’d still slightly prefer Miami here.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.8
23.8
-
Run Yards
186.8
115.2
-
YPRP
6.1
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
25.8
19.6
-
Pass Att
36.2
32.2
-
Comp %
71.3%
60.9%
-
Pass Yards
400.8
193.6
-
Sacks
1.2
3.4
-
Sack Yards
7.0
20.6
-
Sack %
3.2%
9.6%
-
Pass Plays
37.4
35.6
-
Net Pass Yards
393.8
173.0
-
YPPP
10.5
4.9
Total
-
Total Plays
68.2
59.4
-
Total Yards
580.6
288.2
-
YPPL
8.5
4.9
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.4
-
Int %
2.2%
4.3%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.0
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.0
29.0
-
Run Yards
168.5
127.3
-
YPRP
5.1
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.5
16.8
-
Pass Att
32.3
32.8
-
Comp %
66.7%
51.1%
-
Pass Yards
228.3
179.8
-
Sacks
4.0
2.5
-
Sack Yards
21.8
13.3
-
Sack %
11.0%
7.1%
-
Pass Plays
36.3
35.3
-
Net Pass Yards
206.5
166.5
-
YPPP
5.7
4.7
Total
-
Total Plays
69.3
64.3
-
Total Yards
375.0
293.8
-
YPPL
5.4
4.6
TO
-
Int
0.5
2.5
-
Int %
1.6%
7.6%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.3
-
Turnovers
0.8
2.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 @ Florida |
41-17 |
-2.5
W
|
32/24 |
147/165 |
4.6/6.9 |
0/0 |
26/14 |
36/26 |
382/104 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
10.3/3.6 |
529/269 |
7.7/5.1 |
09/07/24 Florida A&M |
56-9 |
0.0
W
|
34/20 |
251/75 |
7.4/3.8 |
0/0 |
26/18 |
33/28 |
375/158 |
0/3 |
2/5 |
10.7/4.8 |
626/233 |
9.1/4.4 |
09/14/24 Ball St. |
62-0 |
-36.5
W
|
31/16 |
243/37 |
7.8/2.3 |
0/0 |
30/19 |
40/32 |
507/105 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
12.7/2.9 |
750/142 |
10.6/2.7 |
09/21/24 @ South Florida |
50-15 |
-17.0
W
|
28/28 |
112/89 |
4.0/3.2 |
0/0 |
24/28 |
34/43 |
404/313 |
1/0 |
0/4 |
11.9/6.7 |
516/402 |
8.3/5.4 |
09/27/24 Virginia Tech |
38-34 |
-17.5
L
|
29/31 |
181/210 |
6.2/6.8 |
1/0 |
23/19 |
38/32 |
301/185 |
2/1 |
3/1 |
7.3/5.6 |
482/395 |
6.9/6.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 UC Davis |
31-13 |
0.0
W
|
35/24 |
111/84 |
3.2/3.5 |
1/0 |
18/24 |
28/48 |
172/221 |
0/3 |
1/0 |
5.9/4.6 |
283/305 |
4.4/4.2 |
09/07/24 @ Auburn |
21-14 |
+12.0
W
|
31/26 |
111/156 |
3.6/6.0 |
0/1 |
25/14 |
36/27 |
223/139 |
0/4 |
2/4 |
5.9/4.5 |
334/295 |
4.8/5.2 |
09/14/24 San Diego St. |
31-10 |
-17.5
W
|
36/32 |
305/131 |
8.5/4.1 |
0/0 |
21/13 |
29/29 |
168/135 |
1/2 |
6/3 |
4.8/4.2 |
473/266 |
6.7/4.2 |
09/21/24 @ Florida St. |
9-14 |
+2.5
L
|
30/34 |
147/138 |
4.9/4.1 |
0/0 |
22/16 |
36/27 |
263/171 |
1/1 |
7/3 |
6.1/5.7 |
410/309 |
5.6/4.8 |