Game Analysis

Boca Raton Bowl

Tuesday, December 20 – 4 pm Pacific

*UNDER (81) – Western Kentucky 41   Memphis  32

Lean Western Kentucky (-6 ½)

Western Kentucky has one of the best offensive units in the nation, as the Hilltoppers averaged 44.7 points on 526 yards at 7.7 yards per game against 12 FBS teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl and 34.4 points to an average offense. Western Kentucky probably won’t reach their average points total of 43 points in regulation against a Memphis team that is average defensively on a national scale (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and 0.4 yppl better than the average defense that the Hilltoppers faced. The Western Kentucky offense is 0.2 yppl better with starting quarterback Mike White playing the full 60 minutes, which I assume he will, and my math projects 528 yards at 7.2 yppl for the Hilltoppers in this game.

Memphis averaged 39.5 points per game on 466 yards at 6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 31.6 points and 5.9 yppl to an average team. That 39.5 points average was skewed by the 77 points the Tigers scored against Bowling Green, so they’re not quite as good offensively as their average points would suggest. The Tigers will also be facing a better defense than they’re used to seeing, as Western Kentucky is 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the teams that Memphis faced this season. The math projects 447 total yards at 5.9 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

Overall, the math favors Western Kentucky by 9 ½ points with a total of 73 points. The Over/Under on this game is considerably higher than the math projection and a compensated points model also projects 73 total points. Memphis games averaged 66.5 total points against a schedule of teams that combine to average 60.0 total points per game (59.4 in regulation) and Western Kentucky games averaged 70.5 points (67.2 in regulation) against teams that combine to average 61.6 total points (60.7 in regulation). So, Memphis is 7.1 total points higher scoring than average (in regulation) and Western Kentucky is 6.5 total points higher scoring than average. The average points per game is 56.4 so the compensated total points prediction would be 71.8, which is 56.4 + 7.1 + 6.5 + 1.8 points in adjustments (like factoring out the stats of the backups and applying opponent adjustments). A more complex points model comes up with 73 total points, which is the same as my stats based prediction. Western Kentucky and Memphis both ended the season with extremely high scoring games (Memphis 48-44 vs Houston and W. Ky 58-44 vs Louisiana Tech), but Western Kentucky only had 3 of their 13 games total more than 70 points in regulation and two of those were against Louisiana Tech, who is potent offensively and bad defensively. Memphis, meanwhile, had only 4 of their 12 games top 76 points, so it’s not like these teams are always playing extremely high scoring games.

I’ll play the UNDER as a 1-Star Best Bet at 80 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 78) and I’ll lean with Western Kentucky at -7 or less.