Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (60.5) – Memphis (-5.5)  30   West Virginia  24

I was a bit surprised by the money flowing in on Memphis soon after the bowl lines were released but after finalizing the math I come up with the Tigers by 5.7 points. Where I see some value is on the Under.

The Memphis offense is not as good as the 35.2 points per game that they’ve averaged, as the 6.2 yards per play that the Tigers have averaged has come against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. West Virginia’s defense is also not as bad at it seems, as the 6.6 yppl that the Mountaineers allowed to FBS teams was to offenses that would combine to average 6.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average without top LB Josiah Trotter, who has hit the transfer portal, but star DE TJ Jackson II has indicated that he’s excited to play and improve his draft stock. Jackson had 13.5 tackles for loss and will be a challenge for the Memphis offensive line. I project a modest 402 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

The West Virginia offense was a disappointment this season and not having WR Traylon Ray in recent weeks has been an issue. Ray averaged 9.1 yards per target this season but his absence has led to more targets for Justin Robinson, who has averaged 9.8 YPT. Garrett Greene should be fired up to end his career with a win and he’ll have to carry the load against a Memphis defense that is very stingy to opposing running backs. The Tigers couldn’t defend the option when they faced Navy in week 4 (536 yards at 10.1 yards per play allowed) but they’ve yielded just 3.8 yards per rushing play in their other 11 games (to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense), so running backs Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson will have their work cut out for them. Greene is a good runner, and he’ll have to be the one to move the chains with his legs and with his passing, which has been just average on a compensated yards per play basis and worse than average when you include his high interception rate (11 picks on 275 pass attempts). Memphis has been 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average against the pass so Greene should post decent numbers. I project 369 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Mounties.

Both teams run their offense at a slower than average pace and the projected yards in this game, after adjusting for what looks like low winds, is barely above the national per game average. The national average for scoring is 53.2 points and I project 53.9 total points (and favor Memphis by 5.7 points). The total on this game is what a compensated points model would project (58.0) but my model projects fewer points than that because it’s unlikely that these teams will turn yards into points at the rate they did during the regular season.

West Virginia, offense and defense combined, averaged 5.47 points per redzone opportunity (5.40 on offense and 5.56 on defense) while Memphis averaged a combined 5.37 PPRZ (5.41 off, 5.30 def). Both teams should be around 5.0 PPRZ based on their statistical profiles, which would lower each team’s total points by about 3 points each (about 6.5 points total). A total of 58 points is correct if these teams continue to score and allow about 5.4 points per redzone opportunity, but that’s not likely, and now the total has gone up a few points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 59.5 points or more.