Game Analysis

Best Bet – Under (72.5) – Wake Forest 34   Memphis  32

Strong Opinion – Wake Forest (+3.5 at -115)

Birmingham Bowl – Saturday, 9 am Pacific

I find it odd that the total on this game opened at 73 points and barely moved even though it was announced last week that the best running back in the nation, Memphis’ Darrell Henderson, was going to sit out to prepare for the NFL draft and that Wake Forest’s best offensive player, WR Greg Dortch, is also out. Henderson ran for 1909 yards at an incredible 8.9 yards per rush with 22 touchdowns – many of them long runs for quick touchdowns. Henderson’s backup Patrick Taylor doesn’t possess that sort of breakaway speed (just two runs of more than 35 yards on 178 runs this season) and his 5.7 ypr average (both this season and over his 3 years) is significantly lower than Henderson’s and not particularly impressive when you take into account that Memphis faced teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yprp to an average running back. Memphis goes from having one of the best rushing attacks in the nation (1.6 yprp better than average) to being just 0.4 yprp better than average without Henderson. The impact of Dortch should also be felt, as he lead the Demon Deacons in receiving yards with more than double any other receiver and his 8.6 yards per target was much higher than the 6.5 ypt average of the next 4 wide receivers. Dortch also was the punt and kick returner so the special teams should take a bit of a hit too. The combined value of those two players to the total is 6.3 points and the total has barely budged.

Wake Forest’s offense actually still rates better than their season rating even without Dortch because backup quarterback Jamie Newman was a significant upgrade over freshman Sam Hartman who was injured late in the season. Hartman was 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average while Newman has been 0.6 yppp better than average on his 111 pass plays this season. So, even without Dortch the Demon Deacons rate as average offensively on a compensated yards per play basis with Newman at quarterback (0.2 yppl better than their season rating). Wake is projected to move the ball at a decent 5.7 yards per play against an average Memphis defense that was better than their 31.5 points per game allowed would suggest. Memphis gave up that many points on the 5.7 yppl that they allowed because they faced a lot of fast-paced teams, which will be the case again today. Wake Forest was among the fastest paced teams in the nation for much of the season but they slowed things down with Newman was installed at quarterback, as the Demon Deacons went from averaging 3.0 plays per minute of possession time in their first 9 games with Hartman at quarterback to averaging just 2.4 plays per minute in Newman’s 3 starts, which is barely higher than the national average. I’m going to assume that the coaching staff will go back to being more up-tempo now that Newman has had a few weeks to work on that part of the offense – although it’s certainly possible that they’ll continue to play at a slower pace since the coach indicated that he slowed the pace to help his defense stay fresher after being thinned by injuries. The slower pace certainly worked better for the defense and the team and the case for the under even more compelling if Clawson continues to play at that slower pace (I assumed the average pace for the season in my math). If I use Wake’s average pace for the season then I’d project 476 yards at 5.7 yards per play for the Demon Deacons in this game.

As mentioned, the Memphis offense won’t be nearly as good without Darrell Henderson, as they go from being 1.0 yards per play better than average to 0.4 yppl better than average. I think part of the season the total on this game was high to start with is because how bad the defenses that Memphis faced this season was not fully being taken into account. The Tigers faced teams that would combine to allow 35.0 points and 6.3 yards per play to an average offensive team, which makes Memphis’ 43.6 points per game less impressive.

The Wake Forest defense seems pretty bad, as they allowed 33.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. However, they faced teams that would combine to average 30.7 points and 5.8 yppl against an average defense, so the Deacs were only 0.2 yppl worse than average and they gave up more points because they faced more possessions due to their fast-paced offense. Wake Forest actually wasn’t as bad as their compensated average stats would suggest as their 6.0 yppl allowed was skewed by the 667 yards at 9.5 yppl that they allowed to Clemson, including 469 rushing yards at 12.3 yprp. A change was made to the defense following that Clemson game (and after a bye week), as Luke Masterson was moved into the starting lineup as an inside linebacker. The Wake run defense was very good over the final 6 games after that change was made, as the Deacs yielded just 4.4 yprp to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average team. It’s unlikely that one player could make that much difference but I did make a small adjustment to the Wake Forest run defense rating to account for the variance of that Clemson game. Wake Forest was actually 0.4 yppl better than average over the final 6 games but I only made a 0.2 yppl adjustment for the new lineup and I have that unit rated as average heading into this game (rather than 0.2 yppl worse than average). The math projects 456 yards at 6.0 yards per play for a Memphis offense that will likely miss their star.

The absence of Henderson’s 8.9 yards per rush has not been properly adjusted for in either the side or the total and my math favors Wake Forest by 2 points with a total of just 66 points, even after adding 1.2 points for the good weather that’s expected today. The only bowl team that Memphis beat this season was Houston, who was without their star quarterback and All-American defensive linemen in that game. The other Tigers’ wins were against Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, Connecticut, East Carolina, Tulsa, and SMU, who are all terrible teams. Wake Forest and their improved defense beat NC State and Duke as double-digit underdogs in their final 3 games, so they’ve proven that they can beat a better than average team, which is something that Memphis has not proven (Houston without King and Oliver are a worse than average team). Wake Forest is a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more (-110 odds or better).

After going over the total in 5 of their first 6 games the change in the defensive lineup and the slower pace of play by the offense lead to 4 unders in Wake’s final 6 regular season games with one of those overs being in a game in which the defense allowed just 7 points. I’ll take the Under in a 1-Star Best Bet at 72 points or higher (Strong Opinion down to 71).