Memphis vs

Utah St.

at Dallas
Tue, Dec 27
12:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 239
Odds: Utah St. +7.5, Total: 60.5

Game Analysis

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Memphis (-7.5)  32   Utah State  25

I commend Utah State for rallying from a 1-4 start to win 5 of their last 7 games and I also would like to commend them for not upsetting Boise State in the finale, which allowed me to cash my Under 7 wins team total Best Bet on them.

Despite the surge in conference play, the Aggies weren’t any better in their last 7 games than they were at the beginning of the season. Utah State’s offense is 0.8 yards per play worse than average for the season and they were 0.7 yppl worse than average in their final 7 regular season game (also -0.7 yppl in 7 games with Cooper Legas at quarterback). Not having RB Calvin Tyler Jr. (opt out) isn’t much of a negative, as Tyler only averaged 4.4 ypr – although not having him in the pass game is worth nearly 0.1 yppl, as his 7.5 yards per target is better than the 3.4 YPT of backup Robert Briggs, who also may not play after missing the final two regular season games.

The Aggies’ defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season and 0.8 yppl worse than average during their 5-2 run so there is no sign of improvement at all during their recent run.

Memphis is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively and their ability to defend the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) matches up well against a Utah State offense that prefers to run the ball but isn’t good at doing so (-0.7 yprp). Without Tyler (and possibly his backup) I am expecting more passing and more runs from Legas, who averaged 4.9 yards on his 78 scrambles this season.

That math favor Memphis, as I project the Tigers to win by 10 with an advantage of 99 total yards and 1.4 yppl. However, Utah State applies to a 74-32-2 ATS Bowl underdog situation and laying 7 points or more in the December (non-major) bowl games has traditionally been a bad idea (83-133-7 ATS; 2-2 this year so far and I leaned with one of the one of the big favorites that covered – Marshall). I’d lean with the Under if it gets back up to 61 points or more but I suggest passing at current numbers.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Memphis
  • Utah St.
MEM
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 33.5 32.9
  • Run Yards 151.2 137.0
  • YPRP 4.5 4.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 23.0 23.8
  • Pass Att 36.0 36.7
  • Comp % 63.9% 64.9%
  • Pass Yards 282.1 273.1
  • Sacks 2.6 1.6
  • Sack Yards 15.5 9.6
  • Sack % 6.8% 4.0%
  • Pass Plays 38.6 38.3
  • Net Pass Yards 266.6 263.5
  • YPPP 6.9 6.9

Total

  • Total Plays 72.1 71.2
  • Total Yards 417.8 400.5
  • YPPL 5.8 5.6

TO


  • Int 0.7 1.0
  • Int % 2.0% 2.7%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.4 1.5
 
  • Points 35.1 27.3
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