Game Analysis
Memphis (-7.5) 32 Utah State 25
I commend Utah State for rallying from a 1-4 start to win 5 of their last 7 games and I also would like to commend them for not upsetting Boise State in the finale, which allowed me to cash my Under 7 wins team total Best Bet on them.
Despite the surge in conference play, the Aggies weren’t any better in their last 7 games than they were at the beginning of the season. Utah State’s offense is 0.8 yards per play worse than average for the season and they were 0.7 yppl worse than average in their final 7 regular season game (also -0.7 yppl in 7 games with Cooper Legas at quarterback). Not having RB Calvin Tyler Jr. (opt out) isn’t much of a negative, as Tyler only averaged 4.4 ypr – although not having him in the pass game is worth nearly 0.1 yppl, as his 7.5 yards per target is better than the 3.4 YPT of backup Robert Briggs, who also may not play after missing the final two regular season games.
The Aggies’ defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season and 0.8 yppl worse than average during their 5-2 run so there is no sign of improvement at all during their recent run.
Memphis is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively and their ability to defend the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) matches up well against a Utah State offense that prefers to run the ball but isn’t good at doing so (-0.7 yprp). Without Tyler (and possibly his backup) I am expecting more passing and more runs from Legas, who averaged 4.9 yards on his 78 scrambles this season.
That math favor Memphis, as I project the Tigers to win by 10 with an advantage of 99 total yards and 1.4 yppl. However, Utah State applies to a 74-32-2 ATS Bowl underdog situation and laying 7 points or more in the December (non-major) bowl games has traditionally been a bad idea (83-133-7 ATS; 2-2 this year so far and I leaned with one of the one of the big favorites that covered – Marshall). I’d lean with the Under if it gets back up to 61 points or more but I suggest passing at current numbers.
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.5
32.9
-
Run Yards
151.2
137.0
-
YPRP
4.5
4.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.0
23.8
-
Pass Att
36.0
36.7
-
Comp %
63.9%
64.9%
-
Pass Yards
282.1
273.1
-
Sacks
2.6
1.6
-
Sack Yards
15.5
9.6
-
Sack %
6.8%
4.0%
-
Pass Plays
38.6
38.3
-
Net Pass Yards
266.6
263.5
-
YPPP
6.9
6.9
Total
-
Total Plays
72.1
71.2
-
Total Yards
417.8
400.5
-
YPPL
5.8
5.6
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.0
-
Int %
2.0%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.8
37.7
-
Run Yards
173.8
208.8
-
YPRP
4.4
5.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.4
15.3
-
Pass Att
31.2
28.5
-
Comp %
59.1%
53.8%
-
Pass Yards
208.7
199.4
-
Sacks
2.2
1.9
-
Sack Yards
11.3
10.5
-
Sack %
6.5%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
33.3
30.4
-
Net Pass Yards
197.3
188.9
-
YPPP
5.9
6.2
Total
-
Total Plays
73.1
68.1
-
Total Yards
371.1
397.7
-
YPPL
5.1
5.8
TO
-
Int
1.5
0.9
-
Int %
4.8%
3.2%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.5
-
Turnovers
2.0
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/22 @ Mississippi St. |
23-49 |
+16.5
L
|
20/32 |
125/113 |
6.3/3.5 |
1/1 |
19/38 |
30/49 |
163/435 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
5.3/8.5 |
288/548 |
5.6/6.6 |
09/10/22 @ Navy |
37-13 |
-5.0
W
|
27/56 |
118/217 |
4.4/3.9 |
0/1 |
24/4 |
35/11 |
391/125 |
0/2 |
4/2 |
10.0/9.6 |
509/342 |
7.7/5.0 |
09/17/22 Arkansas St. |
44-32 |
-14.5
L
|
43/30 |
201/134 |
4.7/4.5 |
0/1 |
19/25 |
28/34 |
344/268 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
11.5/7.7 |
545/402 |
7.5/6.2 |
09/24/22 North Texas |
44-34 |
-12.5
L
|
39/27 |
214/117 |
5.5/4.3 |
0/1 |
19/27 |
29/49 |
127/356 |
1/2 |
3/2 |
4.0/7.0 |
341/473 |
4.8/6.1 |
10/01/22 Temple |
24-3 |
-18.5
W
|
38/21 |
177/53 |
4.7/2.5 |
1/0 |
24/18 |
45/37 |
171/244 |
0/3 |
4/1 |
3.5/6.4 |
348/297 |
4.0/5.0 |
10/07/22 Houston |
32-33 |
-2.5
L
|
36/22 |
181/106 |
5.0/4.8 |
1/0 |
22/36 |
34/57 |
261/357 |
0/1 |
4/1 |
6.9/6.2 |
442/463 |
6.0/5.8 |
10/15/22 @ East Carolina |
45-47 |
+5.5
W
|
30/40 |
113/180 |
3.8/4.5 |
0/0 |
27/26 |
37/34 |
378/291 |
2/0 |
5/2 |
9.0/8.1 |
491/471 |
6.8/6.2 |
10/22/22 @ Tulane |
28-38 |
+7.0
L
|
31/39 |
113/192 |
3.6/4.9 |
2/0 |
26/20 |
41/29 |
303/153 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
7.0/5.1 |
416/345 |
5.6/5.0 |
11/05/22 UCF |
28-35 |
+3.0
L
|
36/39 |
149/224 |
4.1/5.7 |
0/0 |
26/23 |
39/29 |
284/205 |
2/1 |
0/2 |
7.3/6.6 |
433/429 |
5.8/6.1 |
11/10/22 Tulsa |
26-10 |
-6.5
W
|
36/20 |
103/57 |
2.9/2.9 |
2/1 |
20/17 |
34/37 |
236/154 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
6.4/3.9 |
339/211 |
4.6/3.5 |
11/19/22 North Alabama |
59-0 |
0.0
W
|
41/29 |
254/105 |
6.2/3.6 |
0/1 |
18/6 |
29/19 |
239/19 |
0/2 |
2/1 |
7.7/1.0 |
493/124 |
6.8/2.5 |
11/26/22 @ SMU |
31-34 |
+4.5
W
|
32/36 |
169/114 |
5.3/3.2 |
0/0 |
27/28 |
44/38 |
275/311 |
1/0 |
1/0 |
6.1/8.2 |
444/425 |
5.8/5.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/27/22 Connecticut |
31-20 |
-26.5
L
|
50/38 |
269/240 |
5.4/6.3 |
2/1 |
20/13 |
31/33 |
267/119 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
8.3/3.6 |
536/359 |
6.5/5.1 |
09/03/22 @ Alabama |
0-55 |
+41.5
L
|
37/31 |
91/285 |
2.5/9.2 |
0/0 |
8/27 |
22/40 |
95/286 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
4.3/7.0 |
186/571 |
3.2/7.9 |
09/10/22 Weber State |
7-35 |
0.0
L
|
33/53 |
120/198 |
3.6/3.7 |
0/0 |
17/11 |
40/22 |
163/202 |
4/3 |
1/0 |
4.0/9.2 |
283/400 |
3.8/5.3 |
09/24/22 UNLV |
24-34 |
+3.0
L
|
30/38 |
110/117 |
3.7/3.1 |
1/0 |
27/21 |
41/31 |
312/203 |
5/0 |
1/4 |
7.4/5.8 |
422/320 |
5.9/4.4 |
09/29/22 @ BYU |
26-38 |
+26.0
W
|
47/27 |
203/140 |
4.3/5.2 |
1/0 |
19/18 |
31/28 |
174/265 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
5.3/8.8 |
377/405 |
4.7/7.1 |
10/08/22 Air Force |
34-27 |
+10.5
W
|
33/54 |
217/264 |
6.6/4.9 |
0/1 |
18/5 |
23/12 |
200/95 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
8.0/7.9 |
417/359 |
7.2/5.4 |
10/15/22 @ Colorado St. |
17-13 |
-11.5
L
|
48/31 |
246/117 |
5.1/3.8 |
1/0 |
20/12 |
31/33 |
214/145 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
6.7/4.0 |
460/262 |
5.8/3.9 |
10/22/22 @ Wyoming |
14-28 |
+5.0
L
|
30/47 |
136/339 |
4.5/7.2 |
0/1 |
17/13 |
26/26 |
81/191 |
1/0 |
6/2 |
2.5/6.8 |
217/530 |
3.5/7.1 |
11/05/22 New Mexico |
27-10 |
-14.5
W
|
41/43 |
156/236 |
3.8/5.5 |
0/2 |
13/7 |
27/18 |
128/22 |
0/0 |
4/3 |
4.1/1.0 |
284/258 |
3.9/4.0 |
11/12/22 @ Hawaii |
41-34 |
-10.5
L
|
39/32 |
167/247 |
4.3/7.7 |
0/1 |
16/23 |
25/46 |
208/294 |
0/3 |
4/2 |
7.2/6.1 |
375/541 |
5.5/6.8 |
11/19/22 San Jose St. |
35-31 |
+3.0
W
|
47/23 |
197/106 |
4.2/4.6 |
1/0 |
23/20 |
35/30 |
231/233 |
2/0 |
2/5 |
6.2/6.7 |
428/339 |
5.1/5.8 |
11/25/22 @ Boise St. |
23-42 |
+17.0
L
|
42/35 |
173/216 |
4.1/6.2 |
0/0 |
23/14 |
42/23 |
295/212 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
6.7/8.8 |
468/428 |
5.4/7.3 |