Memphis @

(7) UCF

Sat, Dec 1
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 309
Odds: UCF -3.5, Total: 64.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Memphis (+3.5)  32   UCF  31

During UCF’s streak of 24 consecutive wins the last two seasons it has been Memphis that has come the closest to beating them, as the Tigers took the Knights to overtime in last year’s American Conference championship game and lost by just 1 point (30-31) earlier this season in Memphis. With UCF now without superstar quarterback McKenzie Milton, I think the Tigers can get over the hump.

UCF’s backup quarterback Darriel Mack is a terrible passer (48.8% completions and just 3.3 yards per pass play on 47 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) and his great running (36 runs for 306 yards) is not enough to make up for his passing deficiency. In Mack’s start against East Carolina and in relief last week against South Florida the Knighs mostly stuck to running the ball, which will surely be the game plan again, and I expect Mack and the Golden Knights’ speedy running backs to have good success running the ball even though Memphis has a better than average run defense (4.9 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average team). It’s unlikely that Mack will suddenly become an average or better passer but UCF should still move the ball at a better than average clip (5.8 yards per play projected).

The Memphis offense is mostly about the great running of Darrell Henderson, who has run for 1699 yards at 8.6 ypr this season and has 2853 rushing yards at 8.7 ypr since the beginning of last season. Quarterback Brady White has put up good numbers (7.8 yards per pass play) but he’s really just a bit better than average after considering that he’s faced opponents that would combine to allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback. White averaged 6.7 yppp in the earlier meeting with UCF but the math model projects just 5.9 yppp for the Memphis quarterback in this game. Henderson and the rest of the Tigers are projected to gain 277 yards at 6.3 yprp on the ground against a slightly better than average UCF run defense and overall the math projects 6.1 yards per play for Memphis.

Unless Mack suddenly becomes a decent passer, or runs for 200 yards, it looks like this could be the game in which UCF’s win streak ends.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Memphis
  • UCF


  • Run Plays 40.5 36.2
  • Run Yards 273.3 157.3
  • YPRP 7.0 4.9


  • Pass Comp 18.6 19.6
  • Pass Att 29.4 34.4
  • Comp % 63.2% 56.9%
  • Pass Yards 253.0 244.0
  • Sacks 1.7 2.8
  • Sack Yards 10.1 18.8
  • Sack % 5.4% 7.6%
  • Pass Plays 31.1 37.3
  • Net Pass Yards 242.9 225.2
  • YPPP 7.8 6.0


  • Total Plays 71.6 73.4
  • Total Yards 526.3 401.3
  • YPPL 7.4 5.5


  • Int 0.6 0.7
  • Int % 2.0% 1.9%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.2 1.4
  • Points 43.8 29.5
Share This