Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Maryland (+1)  26   NC State  21

Maryland opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and I think the line should have been higher based on how these teams played during the regular season. The number moved to NC State -1 because 4 of Maryland’s receivers have opted out or transferred. However, the adjustments that I’ve made for both teams favor Maryland by 1.2 points, as the market clearly didn’t look into the specifics of the 4 Terrapins’ receivers that won’t be playing and NC State has one receiver not playing that’s more detrimental to their team than the lot not playing for Maryland, which can be argued is a positive for Maryland.

Maryland will be without Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus Jr., Jacob Copeland and CJ Dippre. Copeland and Dippre were positive impact receivers for the Terps this season but Jarrett and Demus combined for just 6.6 yards per target and a horrible 39% success rate. Those 4 absent receivers combined for 7.5 yards per target on 185 targets with a 45.3% combined success rate. Maryland’s #2 and #3 in receivers, Jones and Dyches, are going to play and the rest of the available receivers combined for 46 targets with good results. Overall, the remaining receivers have combined for 8.7 YPT on 152 targets with a 51.6% success rate. I chose not to upgrade Maryland’s pass attack because the math already likes the Terrapins and I wanted to be conservative, but there is a pretty good case to be made the Maryland is going to be even better in the pass game without the missing receivers.

Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa rates at 0.8 yards per pass play better than average if the extreme weather game against Wisconsin in week 10 is excluded (I also excluded that game from the defensive numbers) and the Maryland offense rates at 0.7 yppl better than average with a better than average rush attack to go along with Tagovailoa’s passing. NC State’s defense has been 0.6 yppl better than average this season while not being quite as good against the pass as they’ve been against the run, which is good for Terrapins’ offense that is expected to throw the ball much more than they run it. I project 384 yards at 5.9 yppl for Maryland in this game and there is reason to expect better results given the absence of their two least productive receivers.

NC State’s offense was horrible this season, averaging just 4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, and they were -0.7 yppl if I exclude the horrible production of backup quarterback Jack Chambers, who became the starter after Devin Leary was injured. Leary was 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average and #3 and #4 quarterbacks Morris and Finley, who played most of the final 5 games, rate about the same as Leary did. Not having big play receiver Devin Carter (opt out) is a negative, as Carter’s 8.3 yards per target in games against FBS teams was the best of the Wolfpack receivers, who otherwise combined for just 6.6 YPT. Carter is worth 0.2 yppp and 0.7 points to the NC State offense, which basically offsets Maryland’s defense being without starting CB Deonte Banks, who is worth 0.9 points. Maryland’s defense was 0.7 yppl better than average when excluding the pass stats from their game against Wisconsin that was played in severe winds (the teams combined for just 112 pass yards at 2.3 yppp). That unit is 0.6 yppp better than average without Banks, which is significantly better than a horrible NC State offense. The Wolfpack are projected to gain just 315 yards at 4.5 yppl.

NC State does have an edge in special teams, but Maryland is clearly the better overall team, and the market reacted the wrong way to the news about the Terrapins’ missing receivers, which supplied us with even more line value. The only reason that this is not a Best Bet is because NC State applies to a 65-22-1 ATS bowl situation that plays on teams that underperformed expectations in the regular season. I’ll consider Maryland a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.