Game Analysis

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-5.5)  33   Marshall  26

Marshall is 10-2 against the spread this season and they got better midseason when turning to Braylon Braxton to lead the offense. Louisiana-Lafayette, meanwhile, has covered in 5 of their last 6 games and hasn’t missed a beat offensively since losing starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge.

The Ragin’ Cajuns’ attack has averaged 7.1 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team and former starter Chandler Fields has completed 73% of his passes and averaged 9.4 yards per pass play in 2 ½ games since Wooldridge was injured. Marshall has been solid defensively, particularly for a Sun Belt team, as the Thundering Herd have yielded just 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS defense. I project 441 yards at 6.7 yppl for ULL in this game.

Marshall’s offense improved when Braxton took over the reins in week 6, but the Herd attack is still just average on a national scale with Braxton at quarterback (after adjusting for opposing defenses and adding a bit for the time that RB Turner missed). Louisiana-Lafayette is average defensively after adjusting a bit for the absence of safety Tyree Skipper, who has missed the last 3 games (unsure of his status for this game, but assuming he’s out). I project 351 yard at 5.7 yppl for Marshall’s offense.

Louisiana-Lafayette has a much better offense and the defensive units are even and I see some value on the Ragin’ Cajuns – as did the market earlier this week when the drove the number up from -3.5 to -5.5.