Marshall vs

Colorado St.

at Albuquerque NM
Sat, Dec 16
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 207
Odds: Colorado St. -5.5, Total: 58

Game Analysis

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Lean – Marshall (+5 ½)  29   Colorado State  31

Colorado State enters this game on a 6-game spread losing streak and my math model suggests that the Rams are still a bit overrated. CSU certainly has a very good offense, as quarterback Nick Stevens led the Rams to an average of 502 total yards at 6.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense). However, Colorado State has a horrible defense that is much worse than the deceiving 27.5 points per game they’ve allowed. The Rams have given up 6.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit is bad defending both the run (5.8 yprp allowed) and the pass (6.8 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team).

This is an interesting match-up because Marshall is offensively challenged (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl) while the Thundering Herd have a solid defense that’s allowed just 19.3 points per game – although they are just average defensively after compensating for opposing offenses faced. Marshall’s offense gets a bit of a boost with top wide receiver Tyre Brady scheduled to return after missing the last 3 games (aside from one series). Brady has averaged 8.5 yards per target this season while the next 3 main receivers combined for just 7.3 YPT.

I expect Marshall to have pretty good success moving the ball against that horrible Colorado State defense (the math model projects 410 yards at 6.2 yppl) but the Rams should perform a bit better (projected at 438 yards at 6.4 yppl). That projected yardage difference is not enough to justify the line on this game and Marshall has an edge in special teams. Overall the math favors Colorado State by just 2 points and I’ll lean with Marshall plus the points with no opinion on the total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Marshall
  • Colorado St.
MARS
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 33.5 33.0
  • Run Yards 136.6 131.5
  • YPRP 4.2 4.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 20.8 18.0
  • Pass Att 34.3 31.6
  • Comp % 60.6% 57.0%
  • Pass Yards 238.0 214.4
  • Sacks 0.7 2.3
  • Sack Yards 3.8 13.1
  • Sack % 1.9% 6.9%
  • Pass Plays 34.9 33.9
  • Net Pass Yards 234.3 201.3
  • YPPP 6.7 5.9

Total

  • Total Plays 68.4 66.9
  • Total Yards 374.6 345.9
  • YPPL 5.5 5.2

TO


  • Int 1.0 0.5
  • Int % 2.9% 1.6%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.8 1.3
 
  • Points 26.3 19.3
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