LSU @

Mississippi St.

Sat, Sep 25
ESPN
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 379
Odds: Mississippi St. +2.5, Total: 56

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion – LSU Team Total Under (29 -115)

Alternate play is game Under (56) at 55 or more

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+1.5)  26   Louisiana State  23

Mississippi State coach Mike Leach is known for his pass-heavy Air Raid offense, but the strength of the Bulldogs is their defense. Mississippi State has allowed just 324 yards per game at 5.1 yards per play to Louisiana Tech, NC State, and Memphis, which rate as better than average collectively (they’d combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense). The Miss State defense should limit an overrated LSU offense that can’t run the ball (4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and has been just 0.6 yards per pass play better than average. The Tigers are wise enough to not try to run the ball too much and overall their offense has been 0.3 yards per play better than average through 3 games after being just 0.1 yppl better than average last season.

Mississippi State runs their offense at a very slow pace (just 2.0 plays per minute of possession) and the Bulldogs eat up a lot of clock (34.7 minutes average time of possession) so LSU’s offense won’t have as many opportunities as they usually do and they won’t likely have consistent success moving the ball when they do have it. The Tigers exploded offensively on a horrible Central Michigan defense last week but they managed just 5.3 yppl against UCLA and only 5.0 yppl against FCS team McNeese State in week 2. Mississippi State held NC State to just 10 points on 4.3 yppl in week 2 and just limited a very good Memphis attack to only 261 yards at 5.2 yppl (the 31 points is extremely misleading).

LSU’s defense is much better this season and has been 0.4 yppl better than average (0.3 yppl better than average without DE Andre Anthony, who as 3.5 sacks in 3 games) but the Bulldogs should score enough points to win this game.

LSU’s Team Total Under 28 or more is a Strong Opinion. The alternate play is the game Under 55 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • LSU
  • Mississippi St.
LSU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 25.7 33.0
  • Run Yards 106.3 149.3
  • YPRP 4.1 4.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 26.7 14.7
  • Pass Att 41.0 25.0
  • Comp % 65.0% 58.7%
  • Pass Yards 321.7 193.0
  • Sacks 1.7 5.7
  • Sack Yards 9.7 39.3
  • Sack % 3.9% 18.5%
  • Pass Plays 42.7 30.7
  • Net Pass Yards 312.0 153.7
  • YPPP 7.3 5.0

Total

  • Total Plays 68.3 63.7
  • Total Yards 418.3 303.0
  • YPPL 6.1 4.8

TO


  • Int 0.7 0.7
  • Int % 1.6% 2.7%
  • Fumbles 0.0 0.7
  • Turnovers 0.7 1.3
 
  • Points 36.7 22.0
Share This